Timothy Israel Mon Fund Market Value
| TICIX Fund | USD 20.50 0.01 0.05% |
| Symbol | Timothy |
Timothy Israel 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Timothy Israel's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Timothy Israel.
| 03/20/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Timothy Israel on March 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Timothy Israel Mon or generate 0.0% return on investment in Timothy Israel over 30 days. Timothy Israel is related to or competes with Timothy Fixed, Timothy Fixed, Timothy Plan, Timothy Plan, Timothy Aggressive, Timothy Plan, and Timothy Largemip. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of its total assets in the common stock of companies domiciled andor headq... More
Timothy Israel Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Timothy Israel's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Timothy Israel Mon upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.81 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.02) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.25 |
Timothy Israel Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Timothy Israel's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Timothy Israel's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Timothy Israel historical prices to predict the future Timothy Israel's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0368 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0513 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Timothy Israel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Timothy Israel Mon Backtested Returns
We consider Timothy Israel very steady. Timothy Israel Mon owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0278, which indicates the fund had a 0.0278% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Timothy Israel Mon, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Timothy Israel's Coefficient Of Variation of 1941.48, risk adjusted performance of 0.0368, and Semi Deviation of 0.9461 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0338%. The entity has a beta of 1.03, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Timothy Israel returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Timothy Israel is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | 0.76 |
Good predictability
Timothy Israel Mon has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Timothy Israel time series from 20th of March 2024 to 4th of April 2024 and 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Timothy Israel Mon price movement. The serial correlation of 0.76 indicates that around 76.0% of current Timothy Israel price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.76 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.8 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.24 |
Timothy Israel Mon lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Timothy Israel mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Timothy Israel's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Timothy Israel returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Timothy Israel has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Timothy Israel regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Timothy Israel mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Timothy Israel mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Timothy Israel mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Timothy Israel Lagged Returns
When evaluating Timothy Israel's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Timothy Israel mutual fund have on its future price. Timothy Israel autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Timothy Israel autocorrelation shows the relationship between Timothy Israel mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Timothy Israel Mon.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Timothy Israel in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Timothy Israel's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Timothy Israel options trading.
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Check out Timothy Israel Correlation, Timothy Israel Volatility and Timothy Israel Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Timothy Israel. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Timothy Israel technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.