Third Avenue Small Cap Fund Market Value
| TVSVX Fund | USD 19.64 0.22 1.13% |
| Symbol | Third |
Third Avenue 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Third Avenue's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Third Avenue.
| 05/01/2022 |
| 04/20/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Third Avenue on May 1, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Third Avenue Small Cap or generate 0.0% return on investment in Third Avenue over 720 days. Third Avenue is related to or competes with Third Avenue, Rems International, Third Avenue, Third Avenue, Third Avenue, Third Avenue, and Third Avenue. The fund seeks to achieve its objective by acquiring equity securities, including common stocks and convertible securiti... More
Third Avenue Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Third Avenue's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Third Avenue Small Cap upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0021 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.56 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.67) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.7 |
Third Avenue Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Third Avenue's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Third Avenue's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Third Avenue historical prices to predict the future Third Avenue's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0531 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.002 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0564 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Third Avenue's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Third Avenue Small Backtested Returns
We consider Third Avenue very steady. Third Avenue Small owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0329, which indicates the fund had a 0.0329% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Third Avenue Small Cap, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Third Avenue's Semi Deviation of 1.06, coefficient of variation of 1256.5, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0531 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0355%. The entity has a beta of 1.38, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Third Avenue will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | 0.63 |
Good predictability
Third Avenue Small Cap has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Third Avenue time series from 1st of May 2022 to 26th of April 2023 and 26th of April 2023 to 20th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Third Avenue Small price movement. The serial correlation of 0.63 indicates that roughly 63.0% of current Third Avenue price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.63 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.62 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.42 |
Third Avenue Small lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Third Avenue mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Third Avenue's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Third Avenue returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Third Avenue has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Third Avenue regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Third Avenue mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Third Avenue mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Third Avenue mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Third Avenue Lagged Returns
When evaluating Third Avenue's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Third Avenue mutual fund have on its future price. Third Avenue autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Third Avenue autocorrelation shows the relationship between Third Avenue mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Third Avenue Small Cap.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Third Avenue Correlation, Third Avenue Volatility and Third Avenue Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Third Avenue. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Third Avenue technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.