UCB SA (Belgium) Market Value
| UCB Stock | EUR 121.75 0.25 0.20% |
| Symbol | UCB |
UCB SA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to UCB SA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of UCB SA.
| 03/25/2024 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in UCB SA on March 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding UCB SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in UCB SA over 30 days. UCB SA is related to or competes with Solvay SA, KBC Groep, Groep Brussel, Ageas SANV, and Ackermans Van. UCB SA, a biopharmaceutical company, researches, develops, manufactures, sells, and distributes biopharmaceutical soluti... More
UCB SA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure UCB SA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess UCB SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.3168 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.43 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.43) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.04 |
UCB SA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for UCB SA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as UCB SA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use UCB SA historical prices to predict the future UCB SA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2404 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6219 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.3768 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.4957 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.18) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UCB SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
UCB SA Backtested Returns
UCB SA appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. UCB SA retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.36, which indicates the company had a 0.36% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. By evaluating UCB SA's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.57% is justified by implied risk. Please review UCB SA's Standard Deviation of 1.62, market risk adjusted performance of (2.17), and Mean Deviation of 1.13 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, UCB SA holds a performance score of 27. The firm owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of -0.27, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning UCB SA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, UCB SA is likely to outperform the market. Please check UCB SA's coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the downside deviation and standard deviation , to make a quick decision on whether UCB SA's current price history will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.18 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
UCB SA has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between UCB SA time series from 25th of March 2024 to 9th of April 2024 and 9th of April 2024 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of UCB SA price movement. The serial correlation of -0.18 indicates that over 18.0% of current UCB SA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.18 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.36 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 5.97 |
UCB SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is UCB SA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting UCB SA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of UCB SA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that UCB SA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
UCB SA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If UCB SA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if UCB SA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in UCB SA stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
UCB SA Lagged Returns
When evaluating UCB SA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of UCB SA stock have on its future price. UCB SA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, UCB SA autocorrelation shows the relationship between UCB SA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in UCB SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards UCB SA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, UCB SA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from UCB SA options trading.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out UCB SA Correlation, UCB SA Volatility and UCB SA Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on UCB SA. Note that the UCB SA information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other UCB SA's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Complementary Tools for UCB Stock analysis
When running UCB SA's price analysis, check to measure UCB SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UCB SA is operating at the current time. Most of UCB SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UCB SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UCB SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UCB SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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UCB SA technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.