United States Backtesting

United States Diesel Heating Oil -- USA Etf  

USD 18.17  0.14  0.74%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of United States Diesel Heating Oil and determine expected loss or profit from investing in United States over given investment horizon. Also please take a look at United States Hype Analysis, United States Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, United States Volatility as well as analyze United States Alpha and Beta and United States Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Backtest

United States 'What if' Analysis

November 12, 2017
0.00
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
December 12, 2017
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in United States on November 12, 2017 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding United States Diesel Heating Oil or generate 0.0% return on investment in United States over 30 days. United States is related to or competes with Realty Income, Diamond Hill, Arlington Asset, and Blackstone Group. The investment seeks to reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of the spot price of heating oil for delivery at t...

United States Upside/Downside Indicators

  

United States Market Premium Indicators

United States Diesel lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 
      Timeline 

United States regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 
      Timeline 

United States Diesel Backtested Returns

We consider United States not very risky. United States Diesel owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e. Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0285 which indicates United States Diesel had 0.0285% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards measuring volatility of a etf is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for United States Diesel Heating Oil which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the etf. Please validate United States Semi Deviation of 1.41, Coefficient Of Variation of 25067.56 and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0083 to confirm if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.0395%. The entity has beta of -0.6422 which indicates as returns on market increase, returns on owning United States are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, United States is likely to outperform the market.. Although it is extremely important to respect United States Diesel current price movements, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity historical returns. The philosophy towards measuring future performance of any etf is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By inspecting United States Diesel technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.0395% will be sustainable into the future.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation(0.08) 

Very weak reverse predictability

United States Diesel Heating Oil has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between United States time series from November 12, 2017 to November 27, 2017 and November 27, 2017 to December 12, 2017. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of United States Diesel price movement. The serial correlation of -0.08 indicates that barely 8.0% of current United States price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that United States Diesel Heating Oil has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of United States for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient -0.08
Spearman Rank Test -0.68
Price Variance 0.07
Lagged Price Variance 0.02

United States Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 
      Timeline 

United States Performance vs DOW

The median price of United States for the period between Sun, Nov 12, 2017 and Tue, Dec 12, 2017 is 18.185 with a coefficient of variation of 1.21. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 0.22, arithmetic mean of 18.1, and mean deviation of 0.18. The Etf received some media coverage during the period.
Price Growth (%)  
      Timeline 
1
United States Diesel-Heating Oil Rises 0.52 percent for Dec ...12/07/2017