United States Backtesting

United States 12 Month Natural Gas -- USA Etf  

USD 9.23  0.01  0.11%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of United States 12 Month Natural Gas and determine expected loss or profit from investing in United States over given investment horizon. Also please take a look at United States Hype Analysis, United States Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, United States Volatility as well as analyze United States Alpha and Beta and United States Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

United States 'What if' Analysis

February 16, 2018
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
March 18, 2018
If you would invest  0.00  in United States on February 16, 2018 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding United States 12 Month Natural Gas or generate 0.0% return on investment in United States over 30 days. United States is related to or competes with United States, iPath SP, PowerShares DB, United States, ProShares UltraShort, and VelocityShares 3x. The investment seeks to reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of the price of natural gas delivered at the Henry...

United States Upside/Downside Indicators


United States Market Premium Indicators

United States 12 lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 

United States regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 

United States 12 Backtested Returns

We consider United States not too volatile. United States 12 owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e. Sharpe Ratio) of 0.17 which indicates United States 12 had 0.17% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards measuring volatility of a etf is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for United States 12 Month Natural Gas which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the etf. Please validate United States Semi Deviation of 0.4984, Coefficient Of Variation of 644.15 and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1682 to confirm if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.1284%. The entity has beta of 0.1345 which indicates as returns on market increase, United States returns are expected to increase less than the market. However during bear market, the loss on holding United States will be expected to be smaller as well.. Although it is extremely important to respect United States 12 current price movements, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity historical returns. The philosophy towards measuring future performance of any etf is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By inspecting United States 12 technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.1284% will be sustainable into the future.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation(0.21) 

Weak reverse predictability

United States 12 Month Natural Gas has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between United States time series from February 16, 2018 to March 3, 2018 and March 3, 2018 to March 18, 2018. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of United States 12 price movement. The serial correlation of -0.21 indicates that over 21.0% of current United States price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that United States 12 Month Natural Gas has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of United States for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient -0.21
Spearman Rank Test -0.25
Price Variance 0.01
Average Price 9.33

United States Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 

United States Performance vs DOW

The median price of United States for the period between Fri, Feb 16, 2018 and Sun, Mar 18, 2018 is 9.2052 with a coefficient of variation of 1.62. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 0.15, arithmetic mean of 9.2, and mean deviation of 0.12. The Etf received some media coverage during the period.
 Price Growth (%)  
Independence Contract Drilling Upgraded to C- by TheStreet03/15/2018