United States Backtesting

United States 3x Short Oil Fund -- USA Etf  

USD 10.04  0.60  5.64%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of United States 3x Short Oil Fund and determine expected loss or profit from investing in United States over given investment horizon. Also please take a look at United States Hype Analysis, United States Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, United States Volatility as well as analyze United States Alpha and Beta and United States Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

United States 'What if' Analysis

January 21, 2018
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
February 20, 2018
If you would invest  0.00  in United States on January 21, 2018 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding United States 3x Short Oil Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in United States over 30 days. United States is related to or competes with ETFS Commodity, ETFS Commodity, and ETFS Foreign.

United States Upside/Downside Indicators


United States Market Premium Indicators

United States 3x lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 

United States regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 

United States 3x Backtested Returns

Macroaxis considers United States risky given 1 month investment horizon. United States 3x owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e. Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0915 which indicates United States 3x had 0.0915% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards measuring volatility of a etf is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for United States 3x Short Oil Fund which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the etf. Please operate United States Semi Deviation of 3.37, Coefficient Of Variation of 986.42 and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.179 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The entity has beta of -0.4698 which indicates as returns on market increase, returns on owning United States are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, United States is likely to outperform the market.. Although it is vital to follow to United States 3x current price movements, it is good to be conservative about what you can actually do with the information regarding equity historical returns. The philosophy towards measuring future performance of any etf is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By inspecting United States 3x technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.397% will be sustainable into the future.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation(0.61) 

Very good reverse predictability

United States 3x Short Oil Fund has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between United States time series from January 21, 2018 to February 5, 2018 and February 5, 2018 to February 20, 2018. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of United States 3x price movement. The serial correlation of -0.61 indicates that roughly 61.0% of current United States price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that United States 3x Short Oil Fund has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of United States for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient -0.61
Spearman Rank Test 0.24
Price Variance 0.62
Lagged Price Variance 0.06

United States Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 

United States Performance vs DOW

The median price of United States for the period between Sun, Jan 21, 2018 and Tue, Feb 20, 2018 is 9.3 with a coefficient of variation of 10.13. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 0.97, arithmetic mean of 9.59, and mean deviation of 0.84. The Etf received some media coverage during the period.
Price Growth (%)  
United States Short Oil Rises 0.36 percent for Feb 502/05/2018
United States Brent Oil Rises 0.79 percent for Feb 1602/16/2018