Vale S Backtesting

Vale S A -- USA Stock  

USD 10.15  0.13  1.26%

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Vale S A and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Vale S over given investment horizon. Also please take a look at Vale S Hype Analysis, Vale S Correlation, Vale S Valuation, Vale S Volatility as well as analyze Vale S Alpha and Beta and Vale S Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Vale S 'What if' Analysis

September 21, 2017
No Change 0.00  0.0%
In 31 days
October 21, 2017
If you would invest  0.00  in Vale S on September 21, 2017 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vale S A or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vale S over 30 days. Vale S is related to or competes with Hecla Mining, Dynaresource, and Emerge Energy. Its Bulk Material segment produces and extracts iron ore and pellet

Vale S Upside/Downside Indicators


Vale S Market Premium Indicators

Vale S A lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 

Vale S regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 

Vale S A Backtested Returns

We consider Vale S not very volatile. Vale S A owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e. Sharpe Ratio) of 3.0E-4 which indicates Vale S A had 3.0E-4% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards measuring volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Vale S A which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the company. Please validate Vale S Semi Deviation of 1.71, Coefficient Of Variation of 362225.35 and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0087 to confirm if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 5.0E-4%. Vale S has performance score of 0 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has beta of 0.4332 which indicates as returns on market increase, Vale S returns are expected to increase less than the market. However during bear market, the loss on holding Vale S will be expected to be smaller as well.. Although it is extremely important to respect Vale S A current price movements, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity historical returns. The philosophy towards measuring future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By inspecting Vale S A technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 5.0E-4% will be sustainable into the future. Vale S A right now has a risk of 1.9643%. Please validate Vale S Treynor Ratio as well as the relationship between Downside Variance and Kurtosis to decide if Vale S will be following its existing price patterns.
Advice Volatility Trend Exposure Correlations
15 days auto-correlation 0.34 

Below average predictability

Vale S A has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vale S time series from September 21, 2017 to October 6, 2017 and October 6, 2017 to October 21, 2017. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vale S A price movement. The serial correlation of 0.34 indicates that nearly 34.0% of current Vale S price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient 0.34
Spearman Rank Test 0.37
Price Variance 0.06
Lagged Price Variance 0.03

Vale S Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 

Vale S Performance vs DOW

The median price of Vale S for the period between Thu, Sep 21, 2017 and Sat, Oct 21, 2017 is 10.15 with a coefficient of variation of 2.19. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 0.22, arithmetic mean of 10.12, and mean deviation of 0.19. The Stock received some media coverage during the period.
Price Growth (%)  
Vale SA EPS Estimated At 0.25 Bahl and Gaynor Has Boosted Pa...10/20/2017