Vanguard Explorer Value Fund Market Value
| VEVFX Fund | USD 42.91 0.25 0.59% |
| Symbol | Vanguard |
Vanguard Explorer 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vanguard Explorer's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vanguard Explorer.
| 07/28/2023 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vanguard Explorer on July 28, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vanguard Explorer Value or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vanguard Explorer over 270 days. Vanguard Explorer is related to or competes with Vanguard Mid-cap, Vanguard 500, Vanguard Emerging, Vanguard Reit, and Vanguard Total. The fund invests mainly in the stocks of small and mid-size U.S More
Vanguard Explorer Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vanguard Explorer's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vanguard Explorer Value upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.48 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.57) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.55 |
Vanguard Explorer Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vanguard Explorer's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vanguard Explorer's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vanguard Explorer historical prices to predict the future Vanguard Explorer's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0472 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0419 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Explorer's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Explorer Value Backtested Returns
We consider Vanguard Explorer very steady. Vanguard Explorer Value owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0328, which indicates the fund had a 0.0328% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Vanguard Explorer Value, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Vanguard Explorer's Coefficient Of Variation of 1407.74, risk adjusted performance of 0.0472, and Semi Deviation of 0.9895 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0314%. The entity has a beta of 1.4, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Vanguard Explorer will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | -0.55 |
Good reverse predictability
Vanguard Explorer Value has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vanguard Explorer time series from 28th of July 2023 to 10th of December 2023 and 10th of December 2023 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vanguard Explorer Value price movement. The serial correlation of -0.55 indicates that about 55.0% of current Vanguard Explorer price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.55 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.46 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.32 |
Vanguard Explorer Value lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vanguard Explorer mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vanguard Explorer's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vanguard Explorer returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vanguard Explorer has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Explorer regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vanguard Explorer mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vanguard Explorer mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vanguard Explorer mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Explorer Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vanguard Explorer's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vanguard Explorer mutual fund have on its future price. Vanguard Explorer autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vanguard Explorer autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vanguard Explorer mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vanguard Explorer Value.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Vanguard Explorer Correlation, Vanguard Explorer Volatility and Vanguard Explorer Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Vanguard Explorer. Note that the Vanguard Explorer Value information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Vanguard Explorer's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Vanguard Explorer technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.