Vanguard Explorer Fund Market Value
| VEXPX Fund | USD 110.09 0.09 0.08% |
| Symbol | Vanguard |
Vanguard Explorer 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vanguard Explorer's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vanguard Explorer.
| 03/20/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vanguard Explorer on March 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vanguard Explorer Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vanguard Explorer over 30 days. Vanguard Explorer is related to or competes with Vanguard Mid-cap, Vanguard Small, Vanguard Growth, Vanguard Mid, and Vanguard Mid. The fund invests mainly in the stocks of small and mid-size companies, choosing stocks considered by the funds advisors ... More
Vanguard Explorer Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vanguard Explorer's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vanguard Explorer Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.13 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.81) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.44 |
Vanguard Explorer Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vanguard Explorer's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vanguard Explorer's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vanguard Explorer historical prices to predict the future Vanguard Explorer's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0256 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0171 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Explorer's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Explorer Backtested Returns
Vanguard Explorer owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0037, which indicates the fund had a -0.0037% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Vanguard Explorer Fund exposes twenty-seven different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Vanguard Explorer's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0256, coefficient of variation of 2823.38, and Semi Deviation of 1.02 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 1.44, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Vanguard Explorer will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | 0.34 |
Below average predictability
Vanguard Explorer Fund has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vanguard Explorer time series from 20th of March 2024 to 4th of April 2024 and 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vanguard Explorer price movement. The serial correlation of 0.34 indicates that nearly 34.0% of current Vanguard Explorer price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.34 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.49 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 6.88 |
Vanguard Explorer lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vanguard Explorer mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vanguard Explorer's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vanguard Explorer returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vanguard Explorer has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Explorer regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vanguard Explorer mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vanguard Explorer mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vanguard Explorer mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Explorer Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vanguard Explorer's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vanguard Explorer mutual fund have on its future price. Vanguard Explorer autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vanguard Explorer autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vanguard Explorer mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vanguard Explorer Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Vanguard Explorer in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Vanguard Explorer's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Vanguard Explorer options trading.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Vanguard Explorer Correlation, Vanguard Explorer Volatility and Vanguard Explorer Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Vanguard Explorer. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Vanguard Explorer technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.