Vanguard Wellington Fund Market Value
| VWELX Fund | USD 42.07 0.09 0.21% |
| Symbol | Vanguard |
Vanguard Wellington 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vanguard Wellington's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vanguard Wellington.
| 02/17/2024 |
| 04/17/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vanguard Wellington on February 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vanguard Wellington Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vanguard Wellington over 60 days. Vanguard Wellington is related to or competes with Vanguard Lifestrategy, Vanguard Lifestrategy, Vanguard Lifestrategy, and Vanguard Explorer. The fund invests 60 percent to 70 percent of its assets in dividend-paying and, to a lesser extent, non-dividend-paying ... More
Vanguard Wellington Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vanguard Wellington's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vanguard Wellington Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.5756 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.28 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.89) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.8136 |
Vanguard Wellington Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vanguard Wellington's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vanguard Wellington's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vanguard Wellington historical prices to predict the future Vanguard Wellington's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0416 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0351 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Wellington's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Wellington Backtested Returns
We consider Vanguard Wellington very steady. Vanguard Wellington owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.091, which indicates the fund had a 0.091% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Vanguard Wellington Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Vanguard Wellington's Semi Deviation of 0.4802, risk adjusted performance of 0.0416, and Coefficient Of Variation of 1435.3 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.046%. The entity has a beta of 0.73, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Vanguard Wellington's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Vanguard Wellington is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.07 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Vanguard Wellington Fund has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vanguard Wellington time series from 17th of February 2024 to 18th of March 2024 and 18th of March 2024 to 17th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vanguard Wellington price movement. The serial correlation of -0.07 indicates that barely 7.0% of current Vanguard Wellington price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.07 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.5 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.09 |
Vanguard Wellington lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vanguard Wellington mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vanguard Wellington's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vanguard Wellington returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vanguard Wellington has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Wellington regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vanguard Wellington mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vanguard Wellington mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vanguard Wellington mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Wellington Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vanguard Wellington's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vanguard Wellington mutual fund have on its future price. Vanguard Wellington autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vanguard Wellington autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vanguard Wellington mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vanguard Wellington Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Check out Vanguard Wellington Correlation, Vanguard Wellington Volatility and Vanguard Wellington Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Vanguard Wellington. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Vanguard Wellington technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.