YPF SA (Argentina) Market Value
| YPFD Stock | ARS 22,245 1,777 8.68% |
| Symbol | YPF |
YPF SA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to YPF SA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of YPF SA.
| 03/24/2024 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in YPF SA on March 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding YPF SA D or generate 0.0% return on investment in YPF SA over 30 days. YPF SA is related to or competes with Grupo Financiero, Banco Macro, Aluar Aluminio, and Empresa Distribuidora. YPF Sociedad Annima, an energy company, operates in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in Argentina More
YPF SA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure YPF SA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess YPF SA D upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.42 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0282 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.22 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.88) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.66 |
YPF SA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for YPF SA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as YPF SA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use YPF SA historical prices to predict the future YPF SA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0444 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1615 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.21) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0334 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (8.85) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of YPF SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
YPF SA D Backtested Returns
We consider YPF SA very steady. YPF SA D shows Sharpe Ratio of 0.0353, which attests that the company had a 0.0353% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for YPF SA D, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check out YPF SA's Mean Deviation of 2.22, risk adjusted performance of 0.0444, and Downside Deviation of 2.42 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.11%. YPF SA has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm maintains a market beta of -0.0181, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning YPF SA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, YPF SA is likely to outperform the market. YPF SA D currently maintains a risk of 3.05%. Please check out YPF SA D jensen alpha, sortino ratio, and the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if YPF SA D will be following its historical returns.
Auto-correlation | -0.42 |
Modest reverse predictability
YPF SA D has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between YPF SA time series from 24th of March 2024 to 8th of April 2024 and 8th of April 2024 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of YPF SA D price movement. The serial correlation of -0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current YPF SA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.42 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.18 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 162.9 K |
YPF SA D lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is YPF SA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting YPF SA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of YPF SA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that YPF SA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
YPF SA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If YPF SA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if YPF SA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in YPF SA stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
YPF SA Lagged Returns
When evaluating YPF SA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of YPF SA stock have on its future price. YPF SA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, YPF SA autocorrelation shows the relationship between YPF SA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in YPF SA D.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards YPF SA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, YPF SA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from YPF SA options trading.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out YPF SA Correlation, YPF SA Volatility and YPF SA Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on YPF SA. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Complementary Tools for YPF Stock analysis
When running YPF SA's price analysis, check to measure YPF SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy YPF SA is operating at the current time. Most of YPF SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of YPF SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move YPF SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of YPF SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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YPF SA technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.