Electromed Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

ELMD Stock  USD 16.41  0.15  0.92%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Electromed on the next trading day is expected to be 16.45 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.35  and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.99. Electromed Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Electromed stock prices and determine the direction of Electromed's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Electromed's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Electromed's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Electromed's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Electromed fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Electromed to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Electromed Stock refer to our How to Trade Electromed Stock guide.
  
The current year's Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 1.78, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 2.15. . The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 3.8 M, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is forecasted to decline to about 8.8 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Electromed Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Electromed's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Electromed's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Electromed stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Electromed's open interest, investors have to compare it to Electromed's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Electromed is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Electromed. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Electromed cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Electromed's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Electromed's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Electromed works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Electromed Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Electromed on the next trading day is expected to be 16.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.99.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Electromed Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Electromed's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Electromed Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ElectromedElectromed Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Electromed Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Electromed's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Electromed's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.04 and 20.85, respectively. We have considered Electromed's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.41
16.45
Expected Value
20.85
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Electromed stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Electromed stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0385
MADMean absolute deviation0.3499
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0258
SAESum of the absolute errors20.9922
When Electromed prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Electromed trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Electromed observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Electromed

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Electromed. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Electromed's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.5716.9821.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.8019.2123.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
16.2016.3816.57
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
23.6626.0028.86
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Electromed. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Electromed's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Electromed's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Electromed.

Other Forecasting Options for Electromed

For every potential investor in Electromed, whether a beginner or expert, Electromed's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Electromed Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Electromed. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Electromed's price trends.

Electromed Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Electromed stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Electromed could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Electromed by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Electromed Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Electromed's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Electromed's current price.

Electromed Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Electromed stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Electromed shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Electromed stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Electromed entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Electromed Risk Indicators

The analysis of Electromed's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Electromed's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting electromed stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Electromed

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Electromed position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Electromed will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Electromed Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Electromed could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Electromed when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Electromed - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Electromed to buy it.
The correlation of Electromed is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Electromed moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Electromed moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Electromed can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Electromed is a strong investment it is important to analyze Electromed's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Electromed's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Electromed Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Electromed to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Electromed Stock refer to our How to Trade Electromed Stock guide.
You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.

Complementary Tools for Electromed Stock analysis

When running Electromed's price analysis, check to measure Electromed's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Electromed is operating at the current time. Most of Electromed's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Electromed's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Electromed's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Electromed to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Electromed's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Electromed. If investors know Electromed will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Electromed listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.727
Earnings Share
0.45
Revenue Per Share
6.072
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.167
Return On Assets
0.0721
The market value of Electromed is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Electromed that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Electromed's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Electromed's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Electromed's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Electromed's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Electromed's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Electromed is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Electromed's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.