Alcoa Price Prediction

Alcoa Corporation -- USA Stock  

USD 46.54  1.39  2.9%

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring Alcoa headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alcoa Corporation brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Alcoa hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Alcoa Corporation from the prospective of Alcoa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alcoa over a specific investment horizon. Check also Alcoa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Alcoa estimiated after-hype price volatility

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline
October 22, 2017
46.54
Current Value
Downside upside
46.75
After-hype Price
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
50.77
Upside
Upside upside
Alcoa is not too risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alcoa is based on 1 month time horizon.

Alcoa Hype Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.26% 1.34% 0.21%  0.03% 1 Events / Month0 Events / MonthVery soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
46.5446.750.45%
167.5% 

Alcoa Hype Timeline

As of October 22, 2017 Alcoa Corporation is going for 46.54 . This company has historical hype elasticity of 0.21 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Alcoa Corporation is suggested to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 46.75. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 167.5%. The price increase on the next news is estimated to be 0.45% where as daily expected return is presently at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Alcoa is about 1148.57% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 46.57. The company generated yearly revenue of 10.38 B. Reported Net Income was 165 M with gross profit of 2.16 B. Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the next suggested press release will be very soon.
Check also Alcoa Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Alcoa Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Expected
Short fall
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Alcoa Corporation 0.8 1 per month 1.15 (0.0153) (1.3)  2.24 (1.88)  4.77 
Reliance Steel Aluminum Co 0.37 1 per month 0.9 (0.0068) (1.02)  2.37 (1.8)  4.26 
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated 0.00 0 per month 1.24  0.12 (1.13)  2.33 (2.06)  6.35 
Carpenter Technology Corporation 0.05 1 per month 0.00  0.34 (1.32)  3.46 (0.46)  4.78 
Southern Copper Corporation(0.52) 1 per month 0.35  0.18 (1.31)  1.85 (1.29)  4.35 
Arconic Inc 0.00 0 per month 1.71 (0.0681) (1.13)  2.45 (2.16)  5.63