American Airlines Risk Analysis

American Airlines Group Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 47.70  0.64  1.36%

Macroaxis considers American Airlines not too risky given 1 month investment horizon. American Airlines Group secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.1672 which signifies that American Airlines Group had 0.1672% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 1 month. Our philosophy in foreseeing volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for American Airlines Group Inc which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please makes use of American Airlines Group Mean Deviation of 1.64 and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0994 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

American Airlines Market Sensitivity

As market goes up, the company is expected to significantly outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, American Airlines will likely underperform.
One Month Beta |Analyze American Airlines Group Demand Trend
Check current 30 days American Airlines correlation with market (DOW)
β = 2.7314
American Airlines Large BetaAmerican Airlines Group Beta Legend

Projected Return Density Against Market

Considering 30-days investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 2.7314 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, American Airlines will likely underperform. Moreover, American Airlines Group Inc has an alpha of 0.2284 implying that it can potentially generate 0.2284% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 
Considering 30-days investment horizon, the coefficient of variation of American Airlines is 598.03. The daily returns are destributed with a variance of 3.53 and standard deviation of 1.88. The mean deviation of American Airlines Group Inc is currently at 1.49. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 0.38
α
Alpha over DOW
= 0.23 
βBeta against DOW= 2.73 
σ
Overall volatility
= 1.88 
 IrInformation ratio = 0.19 

Actual Return Volatility

American Airlines Group Inc has volatility of 1.8776% on return distribution over 30 days investment horizon. DOW inherits 0.3939% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 30 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

Market Risk Breakdown

American Airlines Volatility Factors

30 Days Market Risk

Not too risky

Chance of Distress in 24 months

Below average

30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Hypersensitive to market

Total Debt

American Airlines Group Total Debt History

Total Debt

Largest Trends

American Airlines Largest Period Trend

Investment Outlook

American Airlines Investment Opportunity
American Airlines Group Inc has a volatility of 1.88 and is 4.82 times more volatile than DOW. 17% of all equities and portfolios are less risky than American Airlines. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of American Airlines Group Inc is lower than 17 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 30 days. Use American Airlines Group Inc to enhance returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences large bullish trend. Check odds of American Airlines to be traded at $52.47 in 30 days. As market goes up, the company is expected to significantly outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, American Airlines will likely underperform.

American Airlines correlation with market

Very weak diversification
Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding American Airlines Group Inc and equity matching DJI index in the same portfolio.