American Airlines Risk Analysis

American Airlines Group Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 52.80  0.59  1.11%

We consider American Airlines not too volatile. American Airlines Group secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0244 which signifies that American Airlines Group had 0.0244% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 1 month. Our philosophy in foreseeing volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for American Airlines Group Inc which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please confirm American Airlines Group Mean Deviation of 1.6 and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.069824 to double-check if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.0539%.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

American Airlines Market Sensitivity

American Airlines returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As market goes up or down, American Airlines is expected to follow.
One Month Beta |Analyze American Airlines Group Demand Trend
Check current 30 days American Airlines correlation with market (DOW)
β = 0.9547
American Airlines llmost one BetaAmerican Airlines Group Beta Legend

American Airlines Group Technical Analysis

Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of seventeen. American Airlines Group Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input. View also all equity analysis or get more info about average price price transform indicator.

Projected Return Density Against Market

Considering 30-days investment horizon, American Airlines has beta of 0.9547 . This suggests American Airlines Group Inc market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market benchmark goes up or down, American Airlines is expected to follow. Moreover, American Airlines Group Inc has an alpha of 0.0509 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0509% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 
Considering 30-days investment horizon, the coefficient of variation of American Airlines is 4094.83. The daily returns are destributed with a variance of 4.87 and standard deviation of 2.21. The mean deviation of American Airlines Group Inc is currently at 1.51. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 1.75
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.0509
β
Beta against DOW=0.95
σ
Overall volatility
=2.21
Ir
Information ratio =0.0257

Actual Return Volatility

American Airlines Group Inc has volatility of 2.2057% on return distribution over 30 days investment horizon. DOW inherits 1.7888% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 30 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

Market Risk Breakdown

American Airlines Volatility Factors

30 Days Market Risk

Not too volatile

Chance of Distress in 24 months

About average

30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Almost mirrors market

Total Debt

American Airlines Group Total Debt History

Total Debt

Largest Trends

American Airlines Largest Period Trend

Investment Outlook

American Airlines Investment Opportunity
American Airlines Group Inc has a volatility of 2.21 and is 1.23 times more volatile than DOW. 20% of all equities and portfolios are less risky than American Airlines. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of American Airlines Group Inc is lower than 20 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 30 days. Use American Airlines Group Inc to protect against small markets fluctuations. The stock experiences somewhat bearish sentiment, but market may correct it shortly. Check odds of American Airlines to be traded at $51.22 in 30 days. American Airlines returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As market goes up or down, American Airlines is expected to follow.

American Airlines correlation with market

Poor diversification
Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding American Airlines Group Inc and equity matching DJI index in the same portfolio.

Volatility Indicators

American Airlines Current Risk Indicators