Apple Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

AAPL -- USA Stock  

USD 170.95  5.47  3.31%

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Apple which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Apple hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Apple from the prospective of Apple response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Apple over a specific investment horizon. Check also Apple Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Apple After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Apple Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

December 16, 2018
170.95
Current Value
156.09
Downside
163.50
After-hype Price
Target Odds
  
170.91
Upside
Apple is not too risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Apple is based on 2 months time horizon.

Apple Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.66% 2.47% 1.95%  0.12% 5 Events / Month9 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
170.95163.501.20%
83.73% 

Apple Hype Timeline

Apple is presently traded for170.95. This company has historical hype elasticity of -1.95 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. Apple is projected to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 163.5. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 83.73%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.2% where as daily expected return is presently at -0.66%. The volatility of related hype on Apple is about 1346.05% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 171.07. About 61.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.98. Apple recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.91. This company last dividend was issued on 2018-11-08. The firm had 7:1 split on 2014-06-09. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be in about 5 days.
Check also Apple Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Apple Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Fabrinet 0.48 6 per month 2.27  0.13  5.52 (5.01)  14.06 
Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company 0.25 6 per month 2.69  0.07  6.12 (5.63)  22.10 
LG Display Co Ltd 0.01 7 per month 3.05  0.05  4.83 (4.00)  13.28 
Emerson Radio Corp(0.005) 4 per month 1.19  0.08  2.08 (2.08)  5.48 
GoPro 0.02 8 per month 0.00 (0.12)  3.96 (4.87)  33.52 
The Guitammer Company 0.00 3 per month 0.00 (0.0308)  1.67 (14.29)  103.93 
iRobot Corporation 1.89 7 per month 0.00  0.017  5.73 (6.10)  16.58 
Kyocera Corp(0.93) 4 per month 0.00  0.0069  3.40 (2.68)  6.89 
Eastman Kodak Company 0.20 9 per month 5.39  0.07  8.20 (6.53)  36.87 
Koss Corporation(0.08) 8 per month 0.00 (0.11)  6.54 (7.02)  12.99 

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Check also Apple Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.
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