Arbor Realty Trust Stock Price Prediction
| ABR Stock | USD 12.62 0.14 1.12% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
50
Oversold | Overbought |
Arbor Realty Trust stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Arbor Realty shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Arbor Realty's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Arbor Realty and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Arbor Realty's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Arbor Realty Trust, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Arbor Realty's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.44 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.66 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.71 | Wall Street Target Price 14.05 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Arbor Realty based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Arbor stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Arbor Realty over a specific investment horizon. Using Arbor Realty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arbor Realty Trust from the perspective of Arbor Realty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Arbor Realty using Arbor Realty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Arbor using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Arbor Realty's stock price.
Arbor Realty Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Arbor Realty's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Arbor. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Arbor Realty stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Arbor Realty may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Arbor Realty and may potentially protect profits, hedge Arbor Realty with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 14.2261 | Short Percent 0.3999 | Short Ratio 22.44 | Shares Short Prior Month 69.5 M | 50 Day MA 12.8258 |
Arbor Realty Trust Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Arbor Realty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Arbor. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Arbor can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Arbor Realty Trust. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Arbor Realty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Arbor Realty.
Arbor Realty Implied Volatility | 101.5 |
Arbor Realty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arbor Realty Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arbor Realty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arbor Realty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arbor Realty's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Arbor Realty. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Arbor Realty to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Arbor because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Arbor Realty after-hype prediction price | USD 12.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Arbor contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Arbor Realty Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 6.34% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Arbor Realty trading at USD 12.62, that is roughly USD 0.8 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Arbor Realty's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Arbor Realty Trust options at the current volatility level of 101.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Arbor |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arbor Realty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arbor Realty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arbor Realty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arbor Realty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arbor Realty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arbor Realty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arbor Realty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arbor Realty's historical news coverage. Arbor Realty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.15 and 14.77, respectively. We have considered Arbor Realty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arbor Realty is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arbor Realty Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arbor Realty Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arbor Realty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arbor Realty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arbor Realty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 2.31 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
12.62 | 12.46 | 0.16 |
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Arbor Realty Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April Arbor Realty Trust is traded for 12.62. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Arbor is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 12.46. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Arbor Realty is about 46200.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.62. About 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.93. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Arbor Realty Trust has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.2. The entity last dividend was issued on the 1st of March 2024. The firm had 10:1 split on the 30th of August 2012. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Arbor Realty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Arbor Realty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arbor Realty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arbor Realty's future price movements. Getting to know how Arbor Realty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arbor Realty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OHI | Omega Healthcare Investors | (0.17) | 12 per month | 1.19 | (0.03) | 2.00 | (2.25) | 9.81 | |
| MPW | Medical Properties Trust | 0.18 | 9 per month | 2.88 | 0.15 | 6.76 | (4.98) | 23.03 |
Arbor Realty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arbor price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arbor using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arbor charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Arbor Realty Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Arbor Realty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Arbor Realty Trust, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arbor Realty based on analysis of Arbor Realty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Arbor Realty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Arbor Realty's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0794 | 0.12 | 0.11 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.84 | 4.24 | 4.61 |
Story Coverage note for Arbor Realty
The number of cover stories for Arbor Realty depends on current market conditions and Arbor Realty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arbor Realty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arbor Realty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arbor Realty Short Properties
Arbor Realty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Arbor Realty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arbor Realty Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arbor Realty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arbor Realty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 218.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 929 M |
Check out Arbor Realty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Arbor Realty Trust information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arbor Realty's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Complementary Tools for Arbor Stock analysis
When running Arbor Realty's price analysis, check to measure Arbor Realty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arbor Realty is operating at the current time. Most of Arbor Realty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arbor Realty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arbor Realty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arbor Realty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Arbor Realty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arbor Realty. If investors know Arbor will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arbor Realty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | Dividend Share 1.71 | Earnings Share 1.75 | Revenue Per Share 3.894 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
The market value of Arbor Realty Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arbor that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arbor Realty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arbor Realty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arbor Realty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arbor Realty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arbor Realty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arbor Realty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arbor Realty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.