Analog Devices Stock Price Prediction
| ADI Stock | USD 183.36 4.22 2.25% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
51
Oversold | Overbought |
Analog Devices stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Analog Devices shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Analog Devices' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Analog Devices and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Analog Devices' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Analog Devices, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Analog Devices' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.51) | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.95 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.57 | Wall Street Target Price 212.94 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.7 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Analog Devices based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Analog stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Analog Devices over a specific investment horizon. Using Analog Devices hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Analog Devices from the perspective of Analog Devices response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Analog Devices using Analog Devices' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Analog using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Analog Devices' stock price.
Analog Devices Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Analog Devices' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Analog. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Analog Devices stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Analog Devices may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Analog Devices and may potentially protect profits, hedge Analog Devices with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 185.6708 | Short Percent 0.0171 | Short Ratio 2.51 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.4 M | 50 Day MA 193.1538 |
Analog Devices Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Analog Devices' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Analog. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Analog can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Analog Devices. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Analog Devices' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Analog Devices.
Analog Devices Implied Volatility | 45.17 |
Analog Devices' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Analog Devices stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Analog Devices' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Analog Devices stock will not fluctuate a lot when Analog Devices' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Analog Devices. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Analog Devices to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Analog because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Analog Devices after-hype prediction price | USD 187.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Analog contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Analog Devices will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.82% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Analog Devices trading at USD 183.36, that is roughly USD 5.18 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Analog Devices' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Analog Devices options at the current volatility level of 45.17%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Analog |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Analog Devices' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Analog Devices After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Analog Devices at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Analog Devices or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Analog Devices, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Analog Devices Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Analog Devices' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Analog Devices' historical news coverage. Analog Devices' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 185.93 and 189.19, respectively. We have considered Analog Devices' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Analog Devices is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Analog Devices is based on 3 months time horizon.
Analog Devices Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Analog Devices is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Analog Devices backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Analog Devices, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.63 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 12 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
183.36 | 187.56 | 0.01 |
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Analog Devices Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April Analog Devices is traded for 183.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.23. Analog is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 187.56. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Analog Devices is about 42.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 183.59. About 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Analog Devices was presently reported as 71.68. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.6. Analog Devices last dividend was issued on the 4th of March 2024. The entity had 2:1 split on the 16th of March 2000. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Analog Devices Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Analog Devices Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Analog Devices' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Analog Devices' future price movements. Getting to know how Analog Devices' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Analog Devices may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NXPI | NXP Semiconductors NV | (3.05) | 12 per month | 1.96 | 0.02 | 2.98 | (2.89) | 7.58 | |
| QCOM | Qualcomm Incorporated | (1.56) | 8 per month | 1.76 | 0.08 | 3.99 | (2.68) | 9.57 | |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 49.78 | 8 per month | 2.03 | 0.06 | 5.64 | (3.35) | 14.57 | |
| MCHP | Microchip Technology | 1.41 | 10 per month | 2.04 | (0.03) | 3.40 | (3.90) | 11.12 | |
| ON | ON Semiconductor | (1.71) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.92 | (3.62) | 15.15 | |
| LSCC | Lattice Semiconductor | 1.42 | 9 per month | 2.75 | 0.01 | 4.49 | (4.05) | 12.92 | |
| QRVO | Qorvo Inc | (1.56) | 11 per month | 1.93 | 0.02 | 3.61 | (3.32) | 11.79 | |
| WOLF | Wolfspeed | 1.31 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 7.57 | (6.02) | 20.65 | |
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | 1.30 | 9 per month | 1.36 | (0.03) | 2.63 | (2.45) | 6.88 | |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | (8.94) | 10 per month | 2.28 | 0.01 | 4.54 | (3.56) | 18.81 |
Analog Devices Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Analog price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Analog using various technical indicators. When you analyze Analog charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Analog Devices Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Analog Devices stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Analog Devices, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Analog Devices based on analysis of Analog Devices hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Analog Devices's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Analog Devices's related companies. | 2014 | 2019 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0191 | 0.0207 | 0.0201 | 0.0178 | Price To Sales Ratio | 6.81 | 6.6 | 7.87 | 8.26 |
Story Coverage note for Analog Devices
The number of cover stories for Analog Devices depends on current market conditions and Analog Devices' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Analog Devices is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Analog Devices' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Analog Devices Short Properties
Analog Devices' future price predictability will typically decrease when Analog Devices' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Analog Devices often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Analog Devices' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Analog Devices' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 506 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 958.1 M |
Check out Analog Devices Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Analog Stock please use our How to Invest in Analog Devices guide.Note that the Analog Devices information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Analog Devices' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Complementary Tools for Analog Stock analysis
When running Analog Devices' price analysis, check to measure Analog Devices' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Analog Devices is operating at the current time. Most of Analog Devices' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Analog Devices' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Analog Devices' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Analog Devices to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Analog Devices' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Analog Devices. If investors know Analog will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Analog Devices listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.51) | Dividend Share 3.5 | Earnings Share 5.6 | Revenue Per Share 23.165 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.23) |
The market value of Analog Devices is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Analog that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Analog Devices' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Analog Devices' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Analog Devices' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Analog Devices' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Analog Devices' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Analog Devices is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Analog Devices' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.