American Electric Power Stock Price Prediction

AEP Stock  USD 86.10  1.30  1.53%   
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of American Electric's share price is approaching 47. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling American Electric, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

47

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
American Electric Power stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of American Electric shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of American Electric's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of American Electric and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from American Electric's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Electric Power, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting American Electric's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.15)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.36
EPS Estimate Current Year
5.6
EPS Estimate Next Year
5.96
Wall Street Target Price
86.31
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of American Electric based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The American stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Electric over a specific investment horizon. Using American Electric hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Electric Power from the perspective of American Electric response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Electric using American Electric's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Electric's stock price.

American Electric Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in American Electric's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards American. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of American Electric stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long American Electric may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about American Electric and may potentially protect profits, hedge American Electric with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
80.3223
Short Percent
0.0189
Short Ratio
2.3
Shares Short Prior Month
10 M
50 Day MA
80.895

American Electric Power Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to American Electric's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Electric Power. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Electric's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Electric.

American Electric Implied Volatility

    
  18.72  
American Electric's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Electric Power stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Electric's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Electric stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Electric's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in American Electric. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Electric to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

American Electric after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 84.82  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Electric Power will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.17% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With American Electric trading at USD 86.1, that is roughly USD 1.01 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Electric's daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Electric Power options at the current volatility level of 18.72%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out American Electric Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Electric's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
78.9680.2893.28
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
85.2186.5387.86
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
82.0590.17100.09
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.151.341.75
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Electric. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Electric's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Electric's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in American Electric Power.

American Electric After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of American Electric at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Electric or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Electric, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

American Electric Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting American Electric's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Electric's historical news coverage. American Electric's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 83.50 and 86.14, respectively. We have considered American Electric's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
86.10
84.82
After-hype Price
86.14
Upside
American Electric is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Electric Power is based on 3 months time horizon.

American Electric Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Electric is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Electric backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Electric, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.12 
1.33
  0.03 
  0.02 
9 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
86.10
84.82
0.02 
554.17  
Notes

American Electric Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March American Electric Power is traded for 86.10. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. American is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 84.82 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on American Electric is about 692.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 86.08. The company reported the last year's revenue of 18.98 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 2.21 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 8.41 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out American Electric Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

American Electric Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to American Electric's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Electric's future price movements. Getting to know how American Electric rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Electric may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

American Electric Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About American Electric Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of American Electric stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Electric Power, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Electric based on analysis of American Electric hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Electric's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Electric's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Price Earnings Ratio17.921.0619.0914.79
Short Term Coverage Ratios0.790.850.921.35

Story Coverage note for American Electric

The number of cover stories for American Electric depends on current market conditions and American Electric's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Electric is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Electric's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

American Electric Short Properties

American Electric's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Electric's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Electric Power often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Electric's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Electric's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding521.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments544.4 M
When determining whether American Electric Power is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if American Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about American Electric Power Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about American Electric Power Stock:
Check out American Electric Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the American Electric Power information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Electric's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

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When running American Electric's price analysis, check to measure American Electric's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Electric is operating at the current time. Most of American Electric's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Electric's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Electric's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Electric to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Electric's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Electric. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Electric listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.15)
Dividend Share
3.37
Earnings Share
4.24
Revenue Per Share
36.582
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
The market value of American Electric Power is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Electric's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Electric's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Electric's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Electric's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Electric's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Electric is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Electric's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.