Alimera Sciences Stock Price Prediction
| ALIM Stock | USD 3.52 0.33 8.57% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
49
Oversold | Overbought |
Alimera Sciences stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Alimera Sciences shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Alimera Sciences' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Alimera Sciences and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Alimera Sciences' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alimera Sciences, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Alimera Sciences' stock price prediction:EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.02) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.05) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.13 | Wall Street Target Price 8 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.875 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Alimera Sciences based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Alimera stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alimera Sciences over a specific investment horizon. Using Alimera Sciences hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alimera Sciences from the perspective of Alimera Sciences response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alimera Sciences using Alimera Sciences' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alimera using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alimera Sciences' stock price.
Alimera Sciences Implied Volatility | 323.76 |
Alimera Sciences' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alimera Sciences stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alimera Sciences' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alimera Sciences stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alimera Sciences' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Alimera Sciences. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alimera Sciences to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alimera because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Alimera Sciences after-hype prediction price | USD 3.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Alimera |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alimera Sciences' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alimera Sciences After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alimera Sciences at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alimera Sciences or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alimera Sciences, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alimera Sciences Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alimera Sciences' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alimera Sciences' historical news coverage. Alimera Sciences' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.41 and 6.69, respectively. We have considered Alimera Sciences' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alimera Sciences is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alimera Sciences is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alimera Sciences Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alimera Sciences is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alimera Sciences backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alimera Sciences, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 3.17 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 9 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.52 | 3.55 | 0.28 |
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Alimera Sciences Hype Timeline
Alimera Sciences is presently traded for 3.52. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Alimera is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.55 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Alimera Sciences is about 418.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.44. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 80.75 M. Net Loss for the year was (20.13 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 52 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Alimera Sciences Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Alimera Sciences Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alimera Sciences' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alimera Sciences' future price movements. Getting to know how Alimera Sciences' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alimera Sciences may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PETQ | PetIQ Inc | (0.21) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.81 | (4.08) | 15.51 | |
| EBS | Emergent Biosolutions | (0.11) | 9 per month | 5.56 | 0.02 | 12.00 | (9.09) | 95.08 | |
| NBIX | Neurocrine Biosciences | (2.64) | 10 per month | 1.57 | (0.04) | 2.61 | (2.36) | 8.06 | |
| HLN | Haleon plc | (0.07) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.47 | (2.21) | 9.10 |
Alimera Sciences Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alimera price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alimera using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alimera charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Alimera Sciences Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Alimera Sciences stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alimera Sciences, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alimera Sciences based on analysis of Alimera Sciences hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alimera Sciences's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alimera Sciences's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0131 | 0.0125 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.37 | 1.3 |
Story Coverage note for Alimera Sciences
The number of cover stories for Alimera Sciences depends on current market conditions and Alimera Sciences' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alimera Sciences is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alimera Sciences' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alimera Sciences Short Properties
Alimera Sciences' future price predictability will typically decrease when Alimera Sciences' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alimera Sciences often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alimera Sciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alimera Sciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.1 M |
Check out Alimera Sciences Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Alimera Stock, please use our How to Invest in Alimera Sciences guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Alimera Stock analysis
When running Alimera Sciences' price analysis, check to measure Alimera Sciences' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alimera Sciences is operating at the current time. Most of Alimera Sciences' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alimera Sciences' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alimera Sciences' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alimera Sciences to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alimera Sciences' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alimera Sciences. If investors know Alimera will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alimera Sciences listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.84) | Revenue Per Share 3.159 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.875 | Return On Assets (0.01) | Return On Equity (1.59) |
The market value of Alimera Sciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alimera that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alimera Sciences' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alimera Sciences' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alimera Sciences' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alimera Sciences' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alimera Sciences' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alimera Sciences is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alimera Sciences' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.