Amgen Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

AMGN -- USA Stock  

USD 176.30  0.17  0.1%

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring Amgen headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Amgen brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Amgen hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Amgen from the prospective of Amgen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Amgen over a specific investment horizon. Check also Amgen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Amgen After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline

Amgen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

May 22, 2018
176.30
Current Value
Downside
172.58
176.51
After-hype Price
Target Odds
  
180.44
Upside
Amgen is not too risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amgen is based on 1 month time horizon.

Amgen Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.06% 1.31% 0.06%  0.14% 7 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
176.30176.510.02%
139.36% 

Amgen Hype Timeline

Amgen is presently traded for176.30. This company has historical hype elasticity of 0.06 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.14. Amgen is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 176.51. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 139.36%. The price appreciation on the next news is estimated to be 0.02% where as daily expected return is presently at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Amgen is about 56.34% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 176.44. The company reported previous year revenue of 22.94 B. Net Income was 2.22 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 18.78 B. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be in about 7 days.
Check also Amgen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Amgen Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated(0.24) 6 per month 0.00 (0.0359)  2.36 (1.90)  4.50 
Eli Lilly and Company 0.47 6 per month 1.25  0.14  1.97 (2.01)  4.20 
Allergan plc 4.76 5 per month 0.00 (0.0491)  3.21 (2.66)  7.35 
IQVIA Holdings 0.57 1 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
Merck Co 1.53 7 per month 0.00 (0.0115)  2.41 (1.17)  3.95 
Abbott Laboratories 0.33 6 per month 1.34  0.18  1.45 (2.39)  4.34 
Endo International plc 0.12 6 per month 2.15  0.16  3.13 (3.89)  11.45 
Bristol Myers Squibb Company 0.35 5 per month 0.87  0.11  1.34 (1.54)  3.59 
Mallinckrodt Public Limited Company 1.41 3 per month 3.10  0.18  6.59 (5.01)  13.58 
Bio Rad Laboratories 13.95 5 per month 0.49  0.25  2.70 (1.68)  10.45 

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Check also Amgen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using aroon oscillator and other momentum ratios.