Amgen Price Prediction

Amgen Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 186.64  0.88  0.47%

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring Amgen headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Amgen Inc brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Amgen hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Amgen Inc from the prospective of Amgen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Amgen over a specific investment horizon. Check also Amgen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Amgen estimiated after-hype price volatility

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline
September 24, 2017
186.64
Current Value
Downside upside
Downside
183.91
187.45
After-hype Price
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
190.99
Upside
Upside upside
Amgen is not too risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amgen Inc is based on 1 month time horizon.

Amgen Hype Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.46% 1.21% 0.77%  0.60% 1 Events / Month1 Events / MonthVery soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
186.64187.450.38%
72.02% 

Amgen Hype Timeline

Amgen Inc is presently traded for 186.64 . This company has historical hype elasticity of -0.77 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.6. Amgen Inc is projected to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 187.45. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 72.02%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.38% where as daily expected return is presently at 0.46%. The volatility of related hype on Amgen is about 92.6% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 186.04. About 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. Book value of Amgen Inc was presently as 43.41. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.98. Amgen Inc last dividend was issued on 2017-08-15. This company had 2:1 split on 1999-11-22. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be very soon.
Check also Amgen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Amgen Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Expected
Short fall
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Quintiles IMS Holdings Inc(0.19) 1 per month 1.16 (0.058100) (0.95)  1.33 (1.16)  7.21 
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated(0.28) 1 per month 0.00 (0.13)  0.00  2.22 (1.95)  4.90 
Endo International plc(0.18) 1 per month 3.03  0.034200 (2.39)  5.40 (3.59)  13.53 
Abbott Laboratories 1.00 1 per month 0.21  0.17 (0.96)  1.84 (0.89)  3.13 
Allergan plc(5.65) 1 per month 0.00 (0.29)  0.00  2.47 (2.95)  6.01 
Bio Rad Laboratories Inc(2.54) 1 per month 0.47  0.13 (0.85)  1.58 (0.97)  2.74