Ares Capital Stock Price Prediction
| ARCC Stock | USD 20.59 0.17 0.83% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
59
Oversold | Overbought |
Ares Capital stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Ares Capital shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Ares Capital's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ares Capital and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ares Capital's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ares Capital, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ares Capital's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.11 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.59 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.37 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.23 | Wall Street Target Price 21.68 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Ares Capital based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Ares stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Ares Capital over a specific investment horizon. Using Ares Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ares Capital from the perspective of Ares Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ares Capital using Ares Capital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ares using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ares Capital's stock price.
Ares Capital Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Ares Capital's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ares. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ares Capital stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Ares Capital may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ares Capital and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ares Capital with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 19.7649 | Short Percent 0.0267 | Short Ratio 4.14 | Shares Short Prior Month 18.2 M | 50 Day MA 20.2826 |
Ares Capital Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ares Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ares. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ares can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ares Capital. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ares Capital's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ares Capital.
Ares Capital Implied Volatility | 52.77 |
Ares Capital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ares Capital stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ares Capital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ares Capital stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ares Capital's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Ares Capital. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ares Capital to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ares because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ares Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 20.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ares contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ares Capital will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.3% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Ares Capital trading at USD 20.59, that is roughly USD 0.68 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ares Capital's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ares Capital options at the current volatility level of 52.77%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Ares |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ares Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ares Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ares Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ares Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ares Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ares Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ares Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ares Capital's historical news coverage. Ares Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.72 and 21.14, respectively. We have considered Ares Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ares Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ares Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ares Capital Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ares Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ares Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ares Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 0.71 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 11 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
20.59 | 20.43 | 0.05 |
|
Ares Capital Hype Timeline
Ares Capital is presently traded for 20.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Ares is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 20.43 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Ares Capital is about 100.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.62. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.08 B. Net Income was 1.52 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.1 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Ares Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ares Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ares Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ares Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Ares Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ares Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TPVG | Triplepoint Venture Growth | (0.24) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.33 | (2.29) | 16.20 | |
| TSLX | Sixth Street Specialty | (0.21) | 9 per month | 1.00 | (0.06) | 1.17 | (1.26) | 5.34 | |
| MAIN | Main Street Capital | (0.45) | 12 per month | 0.57 | 0.11 | 1.28 | (1.02) | 4.07 | |
| CSWC | Capital Southwest | 0.12 | 9 per month | 1.43 | (0.05) | 1.38 | (2.10) | 5.74 | |
| GAIN | Gladstone Investment | (0.12) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.78 | (2.25) | 5.82 | |
| PFLT | PennantPark Floating Rate | (0.04) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.26 | (1.44) | 2.99 | |
| PSEC | Prospect Capital | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.72 | (2.55) | 8.38 | |
| HTGC | Hercules Capital | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.82 | 0.08 | 1.44 | (1.36) | 6.43 | |
| GLAD | Gladstone Capital | 9.81 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.53 | (2.16) | 6.60 | |
| HRZN | Horizon Technology Finance | (0.06) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.52 | (1.78) | 9.91 | |
| SCM | Stellus Capital Investment | (0.08) | 8 per month | 0.78 | 0.08 | 1.62 | (1.48) | 3.96 | |
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending | (0.41) | 7 per month | 0.73 | 0.08 | 1.61 | (1.59) | 7.78 |
Ares Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ares using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ares Capital Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ares Capital stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ares Capital, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ares Capital based on analysis of Ares Capital hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ares Capital's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ares Capital's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0734 | 0.0992 | 0.0929 | 0.072 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.63 | 12.41 | 6.78 | 10.95 |
Story Coverage note for Ares Capital
The number of cover stories for Ares Capital depends on current market conditions and Ares Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ares Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ares Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Ares Capital Short Properties
Ares Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ares Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ares Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ares Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ares Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 575 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 535 M |
Check out Ares Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Ares Stock refer to our How to Trade Ares Stock guide.Note that the Ares Capital information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ares Capital's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Ares Stock analysis
When running Ares Capital's price analysis, check to measure Ares Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ares Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Ares Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ares Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ares Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ares Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Crypto Correlations Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios | |
| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators | |
| Stocks Directory Find actively traded stocks across global markets | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences | |
| Options Analysis Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios | |
| Portfolio Manager State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital | |
| Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments | |
| Idea Optimizer Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio | |
| ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world | |
| Portfolio Analyzer Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine |
Is Ares Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ares Capital. If investors know Ares will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ares Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.11 | Dividend Share 1.92 | Earnings Share 2.68 | Revenue Per Share 4.718 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.105 |
The market value of Ares Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ares Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ares Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ares Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ares Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ares Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ares Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ares Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.