Alexandria Real Estate Stock Price Prediction
| ARE Stock | USD 115.69 0.82 0.70% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
52
Oversold | Overbought |
Alexandria Real Estate stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Alexandria Real shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Alexandria Real's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Alexandria Real and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Alexandria Real's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alexandria Real Estate, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Alexandria Real's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.94) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.88 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.31 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.48 | Wall Street Target Price 145.25 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Alexandria Real based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Alexandria stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alexandria Real over a specific investment horizon. Using Alexandria Real hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alexandria Real Estate from the perspective of Alexandria Real response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alexandria Real using Alexandria Real's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alexandria using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alexandria Real's stock price.
Alexandria Real Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Alexandria Real's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Alexandria. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Alexandria Real stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Alexandria Real may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Alexandria Real and may potentially protect profits, hedge Alexandria Real with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 116.0576 | Short Percent 0.0326 | Short Ratio 4.65 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.7 M | 50 Day MA 122.5992 |
Alexandria Real Estate Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alexandria Real's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alexandria. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alexandria can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alexandria Real Estate. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alexandria Real's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alexandria Real.
Alexandria Real Implied Volatility | 96.23 |
Alexandria Real's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alexandria Real Estate stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alexandria Real's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alexandria Real stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alexandria Real's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Alexandria Real. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alexandria Real to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alexandria because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Alexandria Real after-hype prediction price | USD 116.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alexandria contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alexandria Real Estate will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 6.01% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Alexandria Real trading at USD 115.69, that is roughly USD 6.96 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alexandria Real's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alexandria Real Estate options at the current volatility level of 96.23%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Alexandria |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alexandria Real's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alexandria Real After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alexandria Real at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alexandria Real or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alexandria Real, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alexandria Real Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alexandria Real's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alexandria Real's historical news coverage. Alexandria Real's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 114.57 and 118.35, respectively. We have considered Alexandria Real's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alexandria Real is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alexandria Real Estate is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alexandria Real Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alexandria Real is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alexandria Real backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alexandria Real, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.89 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 12 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
115.69 | 116.46 | 0.04 |
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Alexandria Real Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April Alexandria Real Estate is traded for 115.69. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Alexandria is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 116.46. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Alexandria Real is about 544.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 115.67. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.15. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alexandria Real Estate last dividend was issued on the 27th of March 2024. The entity had 100:1 split on the 30th of July 2002. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Alexandria Real Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Alexandria Real Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alexandria Real's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alexandria Real's future price movements. Getting to know how Alexandria Real's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alexandria Real may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 1.06 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.16 | (4.58) | 14.07 | |
| SLG | SL Green Realty | 0.74 | 11 per month | 2.61 | 0.04 | 5.42 | (3.99) | 13.38 | |
| KRC | Kilroy Realty Corp | (0.99) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.57 | (4.60) | 13.22 | |
| HIW | Highwoods Properties | 0.24 | 12 per month | 2.24 | 0.03 | 4.45 | (3.54) | 13.29 | |
| DEI | Douglas Emmett | (1.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.88 | (4.30) | 13.58 | |
| HPP | Hudson Pacific Properties | (0.20) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 4.63 | (6.34) | 21.13 | |
| CUZ | Cousins Properties Incorporated | 0.1 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.33 | (3.45) | 9.85 | |
| OFC | Corporate Office Properties | (0.11) | 7 per month | 1.36 | (0.01) | 2.44 | (2.46) | 8.62 | |
| BXP | Boston Properties | (3.12) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.26 | (4.30) | 11.59 | |
| BDN | Brandywine Realty Trust | (0.26) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.24 | (5.37) | 12.84 | |
| PDM | Piedmont Office Realty | (0.22) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.16 | (4.32) | 12.61 |
Alexandria Real Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alexandria price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alexandria using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alexandria charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Alexandria Real Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Alexandria Real stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alexandria Real Estate, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alexandria Real based on analysis of Alexandria Real hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alexandria Real's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alexandria Real's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.02 | 0.0322 | 0.0391 | 0.0425 | Price To Sales Ratio | 15.49 | 9.1 | 7.51 | 5.94 |
Story Coverage note for Alexandria Real
The number of cover stories for Alexandria Real depends on current market conditions and Alexandria Real's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alexandria Real is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alexandria Real's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alexandria Real Short Properties
Alexandria Real's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alexandria Real's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alexandria Real Estate often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alexandria Real's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alexandria Real's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 170.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 618.2 M |
Check out Alexandria Real Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Complementary Tools for Alexandria Stock analysis
When running Alexandria Real's price analysis, check to measure Alexandria Real's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alexandria Real is operating at the current time. Most of Alexandria Real's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alexandria Real's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alexandria Real's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alexandria Real to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alexandria Real's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alexandria Real. If investors know Alexandria will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alexandria Real listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.94) | Dividend Share 4.96 | Earnings Share 0.54 | Revenue Per Share 16.89 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.13 |
The market value of Alexandria Real Estate is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alexandria that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alexandria Real's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alexandria Real's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alexandria Real's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alexandria Real's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alexandria Real's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alexandria Real is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alexandria Real's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.