Ashland Global Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| ASH Stock | USD 95.49 1.60 1.70% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
50
Oversold | Overbought |
Ashland Global Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Ashland Global shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Ashland Global's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ashland Global and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ashland Global's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ashland Global Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ashland Global's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.31) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.01 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.46 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.71 | Wall Street Target Price 108.7 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Ashland Global based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Ashland stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Ashland Global over a specific investment horizon. Using Ashland Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ashland Global Holdings from the perspective of Ashland Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ashland Global using Ashland Global's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ashland using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ashland Global's stock price.
Ashland Global Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Ashland Global's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ashland. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ashland Global stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Ashland Global may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ashland Global and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ashland Global with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 85.8251 | Short Percent 0.0152 | Short Ratio 2.17 | Shares Short Prior Month 792.2 K | 50 Day MA 94.687 |
Ashland Global Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ashland Global's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ashland. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ashland can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ashland Global Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ashland Global's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ashland Global.
Ashland Global Implied Volatility | 27.28 |
Ashland Global's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ashland Global Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ashland Global's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ashland Global stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ashland Global's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Ashland Global. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ashland Global to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ashland because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ashland Global after-hype prediction price | USD 95.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ashland contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ashland Global Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.7% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Ashland Global trading at USD 95.49, that is roughly USD 1.63 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ashland Global's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ashland Global Holdings options at the current volatility level of 27.28%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Ashland |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ashland Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ashland Global After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ashland Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ashland Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ashland Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ashland Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ashland Global's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ashland Global's historical news coverage. Ashland Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 93.48 and 98.04, respectively. We have considered Ashland Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ashland Global is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ashland Global Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ashland Global Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ashland Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ashland Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ashland Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 2.28 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 12 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
95.49 | 95.76 | 0.28 |
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Ashland Global Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April Ashland Global Holdings is traded for 95.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Ashland is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 95.76 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Ashland Global is about 18240.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 95.49. The company reported the last year's revenue of 2.19 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 178 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 668 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Ashland Global Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ashland Global Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ashland Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ashland Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Ashland Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ashland Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GLGI | Greystone Logistics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.11 | 0.08 | 6.38 | (4.44) | 23.59 | |
| CBNT | C Bond Systems | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 11.63 | (11.54) | 41.70 | |
| PRM | Perimeter Solutions SA | (0.02) | 8 per month | 1.99 | 0.23 | 6.12 | (3.27) | 19.51 | |
| AVOA | Avoca LLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 4.21 | (9.41) | 76.01 | |
| APGMF | Applied Graphene Materials | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.17 | 150.00 | 0.00 | 9,920 | |
| ALTO | Alto Ingredients | (0.05) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.15 | (4.76) | 17.30 | |
| GEVO | Gevo Inc | (0.03) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.74 | (8.86) | 28.12 | |
| GVDNY | Givaudan SA ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.21 | 0.06 | 1.83 | (2.12) | 11.08 |
Ashland Global Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ashland price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ashland using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ashland charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ashland Global Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ashland Global stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ashland Global Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ashland Global based on analysis of Ashland Global hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ashland Global's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ashland Global's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0176 | 0.0202 | 0.0192 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.98 | 1.78 | 1.87 |
Story Coverage note for Ashland Global
The number of cover stories for Ashland Global depends on current market conditions and Ashland Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ashland Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ashland Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ashland Global Short Properties
Ashland Global's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ashland Global's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ashland Global Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ashland Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ashland Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 417 M |
Check out Ashland Global Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Ashland Stock analysis
When running Ashland Global's price analysis, check to measure Ashland Global's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ashland Global is operating at the current time. Most of Ashland Global's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ashland Global's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ashland Global's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ashland Global to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ashland Global's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ashland Global. If investors know Ashland will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ashland Global listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.31) | Dividend Share 1.49 | Earnings Share 2.91 | Revenue Per Share 40.938 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.1) |
The market value of Ashland Global Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ashland that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ashland Global's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ashland Global's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ashland Global's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ashland Global's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ashland Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ashland Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ashland Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.