Bp Plc Adr Stock Price Prediction
| BP Stock | USD 38.91 0.39 1.01% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
72
Oversold | Overbought |
BP PLC ADR stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of BP PLC shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of BP PLC's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of BP PLC and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from BP PLC's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with BP PLC ADR, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting BP PLC's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.96) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.79 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.38 | Wall Street Target Price 43.2 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of BP PLC based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The BP PLC stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on BP PLC over a specific investment horizon. Using BP PLC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of BP PLC ADR from the perspective of BP PLC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards BP PLC using BP PLC's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards BP PLC using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of BP PLC's stock price.
BP PLC Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in BP PLC's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards BP PLC. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of BP PLC stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long BP PLC may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about BP PLC and may potentially protect profits, hedge BP PLC with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 36.7361 | Short Percent 0.0031 | Short Ratio 0.83 | Shares Short Prior Month 6 M | 50 Day MA 37.2142 |
BP PLC ADR Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to BP PLC's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in BP PLC. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding BP PLC can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around BP PLC ADR. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of BP PLC's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about BP PLC.
BP PLC Implied Volatility | 34.49 |
BP PLC's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of BP PLC ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if BP PLC's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that BP PLC stock will not fluctuate a lot when BP PLC's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in BP PLC. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in BP PLC to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying BP PLC because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
BP PLC after-hype prediction price | USD 38.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current BP PLC contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that BP PLC ADR will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.16% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With BP PLC trading at USD 38.91, that is roughly USD 0.84 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating BP PLC's daily price movement you should consider acquiring BP PLC ADR options at the current volatility level of 34.49%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
BP PLC |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BP PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BP PLC After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of BP PLC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in BP PLC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of BP PLC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
BP PLC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting BP PLC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on BP PLC's historical news coverage. BP PLC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.73 and 40.13, respectively. We have considered BP PLC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
BP PLC is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of BP PLC ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
BP PLC Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as BP PLC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BP PLC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BP PLC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.20 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 11 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
38.91 | 38.93 | 0.05 |
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BP PLC Hype Timeline
As of April 23, 2024 BP PLC ADR is listed for 38.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. BP PLC is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 38.93 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on BP PLC is about 500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 38.86. The company generated the yearly revenue of 210.13 B. Reported Net Income was 15.24 B with gross profit of 70.17 B. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out BP PLC Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.BP PLC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to BP PLC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict BP PLC's future price movements. Getting to know how BP PLC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how BP PLC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SHEL | Shell PLC ADR | (0.40) | 12 per month | 0.29 | 0.22 | 1.68 | (1.21) | 3.93 | |
| PBR-A | Petrleo Brasileiro SA | (0.08) | 12 per month | 2.43 | 0.01 | 3.01 | (2.20) | 15.60 |
BP PLC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine BP PLC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for BP PLC using various technical indicators. When you analyze BP PLC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About BP PLC Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of BP PLC stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as BP PLC ADR, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of BP PLC based on analysis of BP PLC hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to BP PLC's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to BP PLC's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0482 | 0.047 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.57 | 0.49 |
Story Coverage note for BP PLC
The number of cover stories for BP PLC depends on current market conditions and BP PLC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that BP PLC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about BP PLC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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BP PLC Short Properties
BP PLC's future price predictability will typically decrease when BP PLC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of BP PLC ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential BP PLC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BP PLC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 33.9 B |
Check out BP PLC Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Complementary Tools for BP PLC Stock analysis
When running BP PLC's price analysis, check to measure BP PLC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BP PLC is operating at the current time. Most of BP PLC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BP PLC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BP PLC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BP PLC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is BP PLC's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of BP PLC. If investors know BP PLC will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about BP PLC listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.96) | Dividend Share 0.284 | Earnings Share 5.15 | Revenue Per Share 18.003 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.25) |
The market value of BP PLC ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of BP PLC that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of BP PLC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is BP PLC's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because BP PLC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect BP PLC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between BP PLC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if BP PLC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BP PLC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.