Cae Inc Stock Price Prediction
| CAE Stock | USD 18.92 0.21 1.10% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
50
Oversold | Overbought |
CAE Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of CAE shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of CAE's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of CAE and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from CAE's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with CAE Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting CAE's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.29) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.32 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.85 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.95 | Wall Street Target Price 29.03 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of CAE based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The CAE stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on CAE over a specific investment horizon. Using CAE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CAE Inc from the perspective of CAE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards CAE using CAE's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards CAE using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of CAE's stock price.
CAE Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in CAE's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards CAE. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of CAE stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long CAE may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about CAE and may potentially protect profits, hedge CAE with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 21.4233 | Short Percent 0.0056 | Short Ratio 4.17 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.6 M | 50 Day MA 19.737 |
CAE Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to CAE's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in CAE. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CAE can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CAE Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of CAE's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about CAE.
CAE Implied Volatility | 0.0 |
CAE's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of CAE Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if CAE's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that CAE stock will not fluctuate a lot when CAE's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in CAE. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in CAE to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying CAE because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
CAE after-hype prediction price | USD 18.92 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CAE |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CAE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CAE After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CAE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CAE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CAE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CAE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CAE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CAE's historical news coverage. CAE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.05 and 20.79, respectively. We have considered CAE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CAE is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CAE Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
CAE Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CAE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CAE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CAE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.87 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
18.92 | 18.92 | 0.00 |
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CAE Hype Timeline
On the 18th of April 2024 CAE Inc is traded for 18.92. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. CAE is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on CAE is about 2337.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.93. About 73.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.82. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. CAE Inc has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.45. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of March 2020. The firm had 2:1 split on the 5th of July 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out CAE Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.CAE Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CAE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CAE's future price movements. Getting to know how CAE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CAE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HXL | Hexcel | 0.10 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.06 | (2.14) | 15.71 | |
| DCO | Ducommun Incorporated | (0.21) | 6 per month | 1.74 | 0 | 2.48 | (3.39) | 18.67 | |
| MRCY | Mercury Systems | 0.68 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.51 | (3.44) | 16.01 | |
| AIR | AAR Corp | (2.05) | 8 per month | 1.62 | 0.04 | 2.78 | (2.36) | 12.62 | |
| CW | Curtiss Wright | 0.31 | 11 per month | 0.57 | 0.14 | 1.51 | (1.20) | 4.29 | |
| KAMN | Kaman | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.75 | (0.50) | 101.73 | |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc | 1.80 | 5 per month | 1.13 | 0.06 | 2.50 | (2.07) | 5.69 | |
| MOG-B | Moog Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.44 | 0.04 | 0.83 | (0.91) | 9.13 |
CAE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CAE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CAE using various technical indicators. When you analyze CAE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About CAE Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of CAE stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as CAE Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of CAE based on analysis of CAE hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to CAE's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to CAE's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0268 | 0.0154 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.08 | 2.54 |
Story Coverage note for CAE
The number of cover stories for CAE depends on current market conditions and CAE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CAE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CAE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CAE Short Properties
CAE's future price predictability will typically decrease when CAE's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CAE Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CAE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CAE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 318.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 217.6 M |
Check out CAE Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the CAE Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CAE's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Complementary Tools for CAE Stock analysis
When running CAE's price analysis, check to measure CAE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CAE is operating at the current time. Most of CAE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CAE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CAE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CAE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CAE's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CAE. If investors know CAE will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CAE listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.29) | Earnings Share 0.62 | Revenue Per Share 14.294 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.128 | Return On Assets 0.0327 |
The market value of CAE Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CAE that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CAE's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CAE's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CAE's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CAE's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CAE's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CAE is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CAE's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.