Cal Maine Foods Stock Price Prediction
| CALM Stock | USD 58.82 0.86 1.44% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
59
Oversold | Overbought |
Cal Maine Foods stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Cal Maine shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Cal Maine's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Cal Maine and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Cal Maine's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Cal Maine Foods, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Cal Maine's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.67 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.29 | Wall Street Target Price 62.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 2.46 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Cal Maine based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Cal stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Cal Maine over a specific investment horizon. Using Cal Maine hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cal Maine Foods from the perspective of Cal Maine response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Cal Maine using Cal Maine's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Cal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Cal Maine's stock price.
Cal Maine Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Cal Maine's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Cal. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Cal Maine stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Cal Maine may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Cal Maine and may potentially protect profits, hedge Cal Maine with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 51.8294 | Short Percent 0.0954 | Short Ratio 4.25 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.8 M | 50 Day MA 59.1418 |
Cal Maine Foods Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Cal Maine's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Cal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cal Maine Foods. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Cal Maine's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Cal Maine.
Cal Maine Implied Volatility | 29.45 |
Cal Maine's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cal Maine Foods stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cal Maine's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cal Maine stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cal Maine's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Cal Maine. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Cal Maine to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Cal because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Cal Maine after-hype prediction price | USD 59.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Cal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Cal Maine Foods will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.84% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Cal Maine trading at USD 58.82, that is roughly USD 1.08 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Cal Maine's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Cal Maine Foods options at the current volatility level of 29.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Cal |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cal Maine's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cal Maine After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cal Maine at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cal Maine or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cal Maine, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cal Maine Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cal Maine's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cal Maine's historical news coverage. Cal Maine's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 58.25 and 60.95, respectively. We have considered Cal Maine's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cal Maine is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cal Maine Foods is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cal Maine Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cal Maine is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cal Maine backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cal Maine, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.35 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
58.82 | 59.60 | 0.13 |
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Cal Maine Hype Timeline
Cal Maine Foods is currently traded for 58.82. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Cal is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 59.6. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 177.63%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Cal Maine is about 316.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 58.77. About 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.72. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Cal Maine Foods has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.75. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.64. The firm last dividend was issued on the 30th of April 2024. Cal Maine had 2:1 split on the 3rd of November 2014. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Cal Maine Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Cal Maine Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cal Maine's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cal Maine's future price movements. Getting to know how Cal Maine's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cal Maine may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BG | Bunge Limited | 0.11 | 12 per month | 1.03 | 0.18 | 2.56 | (2.27) | 5.86 | |
| ADM | Archer Daniels Midland | (1.40) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.13 | (2.38) | 24.19 | |
| AFRI | Forafric Global PLC | 0.01 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.27 | (1.52) | 3.44 |
Cal Maine Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Cal Maine Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Cal Maine stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Cal Maine Foods, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Cal Maine based on analysis of Cal Maine hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Cal Maine's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Cal Maine's related companies. | 2013 | 2019 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0232 | 0.11 | 0.0146 | 0.0173 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.32 | 0.74 | 1.16 | 0.64 |
Story Coverage note for Cal Maine
The number of cover stories for Cal Maine depends on current market conditions and Cal Maine's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cal Maine is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cal Maine's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cal Maine Short Properties
Cal Maine's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cal Maine's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cal Maine Foods often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cal Maine's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cal Maine's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 647.9 M |
Check out Cal Maine Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Complementary Tools for Cal Stock analysis
When running Cal Maine's price analysis, check to measure Cal Maine's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cal Maine is operating at the current time. Most of Cal Maine's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cal Maine's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cal Maine's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cal Maine to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Cal Maine's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cal Maine. If investors know Cal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cal Maine listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | Dividend Share 1.879 | Earnings Share 5.64 | Revenue Per Share 48.755 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.29) |
The market value of Cal Maine Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cal Maine's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cal Maine's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cal Maine's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cal Maine's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cal Maine's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cal Maine is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cal Maine's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.