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Carnival risk analysis

 
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Carnival

Stock@New York Stock Exchange 
United States USD
     
Use Carnival Corporation risk analysis together with your stock portfolios to protect against small markets fluctuations and to determine Stock optimization strategy that fits your criteria.  Suggest Portfolio
Investment horizon: 
  30 Days    Login   to change

Projected Return Density against Market

Considering 30-days investment horizon, the stock has beta cooficient of 1.64 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Carnival will likely underperform. In addition to that, Carnival Corporation has alpha of 1.64 implying that it can potentially generate 1.64% excess return over S&P 500 after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
Predicted Return Density
 
Returns   
S&P 500   Carnival   
Considering 30-days investment horizon, the coefficient of variation of Carnival is -5358.28. The daily returns are destributed with a variance of 2.86 and standard deviation of 1.69. The mean deviation of Carnival Corporation is currently at 1.2. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (S&P 500) has volatility of 0.57
alpha for Carnival Corporation(alpha)= 1.64 
beta for Carnival Corporation(beta) = 1.64 
volatility for Carnival Corporation(volatility) = 1.69 

Actual Return Volatility

Carnival Corporation has volatility of 1.69% on return distribution over 30 days investment horizon. S&P 500 shows 0.57% volatility of returns over 30 trading days.
Daily Returns (%)
Market   Equity   
 
    
May 23 2013
 32.61 
  
 32.99 
0.38  Macroaxis: 1.1652867218644665 Up   1.17%  
Lowest period price (30 days)
May 08 2013
 35.47 
  
 35.61 
0.14  Macroaxis: 0.3946997462644504 Up   0.39%  
Highest period price (30 days)
    
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Carnival Corporation has a volatility of 1.69 and is 2.96 times more volatile than S&P 500. 21% of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Carnival. Compared with the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Carnival Corporation is lower than 21 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 30 days. Use Carnival Corporation to protect against small markets fluctuations. The stock experiences normal downward trend, but the immediate impact on correlations cannot be determined at the moment . As market goes up, the company is expected to significantly outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Carnival will likely underperform.

Carnival correlation with market

Very weak diversification
Overlapping area represents amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Carnival Corp. and equity matching GSPC index in the same portfolio

Carnival Current Risk Indicators

Risk Adjusted Performance(0.0041)
Market Risk Adjusted Performance(0.02)
Mean Deviation1.2
Semi-Deviation1.67
Downside Deviation1.66
Coefficient Of Variation(5,358)
Standard Deviation1.69

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