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Century risk analysis

 
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Century Aluminum

Stock@NASDAQ 
United States USD
     
Use Century Aluminum Co risk analysis together with your stock portfolios to protect against small markets fluctuations and to determine Stock optimization strategy that fits your criteria.  Suggest Portfolio
Investment horizon: 
  30 Days    Login   to change

Projected Return Density against Market

Given investment horizon of 30 days, the stock has beta cooficient of 2.15 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Century will likely underperform. In addition to that, Century Aluminum Co has alpha of 2.15 implying that it can potentially generate 2.15% excess return over S&P 500 after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
Predicted Return Density
 
Returns   
S&P 500   Century   
Given investment horizon of 30 days, the coefficient of variation of Century is 224.28. The daily returns are destributed with a variance of 15.92 and standard deviation of 3.99. The mean deviation of Century Aluminum Co is currently at 3.07. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (S&P 500) has volatility of 0.57
alpha for Century Aluminum Co(alpha)= 2.15 
beta for Century Aluminum Co(beta) = 2.15 
volatility for Century Aluminum Co(volatility) = 3.99 

Actual Return Volatility

Century Aluminum Co inherits 3.99% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 30 days horizon. S&P 500 shows 0.57% volatility of returns over 30 trading days.
Daily Returns (%)
Market   Equity   
 
    
April 26 2013
 6.84 
  
 6.74 
(0.10)  Macroaxis: -1.4619883040935622 Down   1.46%  
Lowest period price (30 days)
May 22 2013
 9.99 
  
 10.18 
0.19  Macroaxis: 1.9019019019018968 Up   1.90%  
Highest period price (30 days)
    
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Century Aluminum Co has a volatility of 3.99 and is 7.0 times more volatile than S&P 500. 51% of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Century. Compared with the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Century Aluminum Co is higher than 51 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 30 days. Use Century Aluminum Co to protect against small markets fluctuations. The stock experiences moderate downward daily trend and can be a good diversifier. As market goes up, the company is expected to significantly outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Century will likely underperform.

Century correlation with market

Weak diversification
Overlapping area represents amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Century Aluminum Co. and equity matching GSPC index in the same portfolio

Century Current Risk Indicators

Risk Adjusted Performance0.2648
Market Risk Adjusted Performance0.8329
Mean Deviation3.07
Downside Deviation1.41
Coefficient Of Variation224.28
Standard Deviation3.99
Variance15.92

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