Camden Property Trust Stock Price Prediction
| CPT Stock | USD 98.86 0.26 0.26% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
58
Oversold | Overbought |
Camden Property Trust stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Camden Property shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Camden Property's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Camden Property and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Camden Property's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Camden Property Trust, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Camden Property's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.833 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.39 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.69 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.76 | Wall Street Target Price 104.21 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Camden Property based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Camden stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Camden Property over a specific investment horizon. Using Camden Property hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Camden Property Trust from the perspective of Camden Property response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Camden Property using Camden Property's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Camden using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Camden Property's stock price.
Camden Property Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Camden Property's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Camden. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Camden Property stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Camden Property may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Camden Property and may potentially protect profits, hedge Camden Property with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 98.2875 | Short Percent 0.0395 | Short Ratio 2.43 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.8 M | 50 Day MA 96.9658 |
Camden Property Trust Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Camden Property's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Camden. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Camden can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Camden Property Trust. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Camden Property's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Camden Property.
Camden Property Implied Volatility | 31.82 |
Camden Property's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Camden Property Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Camden Property's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Camden Property stock will not fluctuate a lot when Camden Property's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Camden Property. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Camden Property to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Camden because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Camden Property after-hype prediction price | USD 98.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Camden contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Camden Property Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.99% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Camden Property trading at USD 98.86, that is roughly USD 1.97 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Camden Property's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Camden Property Trust options at the current volatility level of 31.82%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Camden |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Camden Property's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Camden Property After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Camden Property at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Camden Property or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Camden Property, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Camden Property Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Camden Property's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Camden Property's historical news coverage. Camden Property's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 97.12 and 100.26, respectively. We have considered Camden Property's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Camden Property is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Camden Property Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Camden Property Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Camden Property is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Camden Property backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Camden Property, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.58 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
98.86 | 98.69 | 0.17 |
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Camden Property Hype Timeline
On the 25th of April Camden Property Trust is traded for 98.86. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Camden is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 98.69. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 74.53%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.17%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Camden Property is about 4121.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 98.86. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Camden Property was currently reported as 45.75. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 105.13. Camden Property Trust last dividend was issued on the 27th of March 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Camden Property Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Camden Property Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Camden Property's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Camden Property's future price movements. Getting to know how Camden Property's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Camden Property may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AVB | AvalonBay Communities | 1.14 | 11 per month | 1.14 | (0) | 2.64 | (1.98) | 6.23 | |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust | (0.51) | 7 per month | 1.35 | (0.04) | 2.50 | (2.24) | 6.17 | |
| EQR | Equity Residential | (0.81) | 10 per month | 1.35 | (0.02) | 2.14 | (2.29) | 6.12 | |
| UDR | UDR Inc | (0.80) | 7 per month | 1.38 | (0.06) | 1.77 | (2.16) | 5.90 | |
| MAA | Mid America Apartment Communities | 0.16 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.00 | (2.18) | 6.67 | |
| NXRT | Nexpoint Residential Trust | 0.59 | 11 per month | 2.25 | (0.01) | 3.66 | (3.65) | 10.36 |
Camden Property Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Camden price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Camden using various technical indicators. When you analyze Camden charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Camden Property Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Camden Property stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Camden Property Trust, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Camden Property based on analysis of Camden Property hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Camden Property's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Camden Property's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0188 | 0.033 | 0.0403 | 0.0603 | Price To Sales Ratio | 15.94 | 8.46 | 6.98 | 5.4 |
Story Coverage note for Camden Property
The number of cover stories for Camden Property depends on current market conditions and Camden Property's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Camden Property is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Camden Property's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Camden Property Short Properties
Camden Property's future price predictability will typically decrease when Camden Property's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Camden Property Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Camden Property's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Camden Property's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 109.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 268 M |
Check out Camden Property Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Camden Stock analysis
When running Camden Property's price analysis, check to measure Camden Property's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Camden Property is operating at the current time. Most of Camden Property's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Camden Property's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Camden Property's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Camden Property to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Camden Property's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Camden Property. If investors know Camden will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Camden Property listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.833 | Dividend Share 4 | Earnings Share 3.7 | Revenue Per Share 14.232 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.032 |
The market value of Camden Property Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Camden that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Camden Property's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Camden Property's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Camden Property's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Camden Property's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Camden Property's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Camden Property is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Camden Property's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.