DB Crude Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

DTO -- USA Etf  

USD 57.42  0.89  1.53%

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring DB Crude headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With DB Crude hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN from the prospective of DB Crude response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on DB Crude over a specific investment horizon. Additionally see DB Crude Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

DB Crude After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline

DB Crude Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

July 19, 2018
57.42
Current Value
57.42
After-hype Price
Target Odds
  
69.84
Upside
DB Crude is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of DB Crude Oil is based on 1 month time horizon.

DB Crude Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.81% 4.14% 0.00%  0.07% 0 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
57.4257.420.00%
0.00% 

DB Crude Hype Timeline

On 19 of July DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN is traded for 57.42. This company stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.07. DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN is estimated not to react to the next headline with price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of 0.0%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small where as daily expected return is currently at -0.81%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to DB Crude is about 4987.95%%. The volatility of related hype on DB Crude is about 4987.95% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 57.49. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be in a few days.
Additionally see DB Crude Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

DB Crude Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
United States Oil 0.00 0 per month 1.99  0.1  3.63 (3.66)  10.38 
United States Natural Gas 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.32)  1.55 (1.98)  3.65 
PowerShares DB Oil ETF 0.04 1 per month 2.45 (0.0066)  1.84 (3.77)  8.44 
VelocityShares 3x Invrs Crude Oil ETNNew 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.17)  10.56 (10.50)  18.14 
PowerShares DB Energy ETF 0.00 0 per month 2.03 (0.08)  1.65 (3.62)  7.33 
ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.17)  6.99 (6.11)  11.70 
VelocityShares 3x Lng Crude Oil ETN New 0.00 0 per month 6.03  0.13  10.64 (10.87)  30.72 
United States 12 Month Oil 0.00 0 per month 2.35  0.016  2.21 (3.57)  8.86 
iPath B SP GSCI Crude Oil TR ETN 0.79 1 per month 1.75  0.1  3.61 (3.26)  9.54 
United States Gasoline 0.00 0 per month 2.12 (0.0372)  2.12 (3.89)  7.35 

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Additionally see DB Crude Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.