Ford Motor Stock Price Prediction

F Stock  USD 12.06  0.02  0.17%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Ford's stock price is roughly 64. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 19th of March 2024. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling a stock, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

64

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Ford Motor stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Ford shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Ford's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ford and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ford's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ford Motor, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ford's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.938
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.43
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.87
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.83
Wall Street Target Price
13.06
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Ford based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Ford stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Ford over a specific investment horizon. Using Ford hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ford Motor from the perspective of Ford response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ford using Ford's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ford using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ford's stock price.

Ford Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Ford's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ford. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ford stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Ford may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ford and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ford with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
12.237
Short Percent
0.0425
Short Ratio
2.52
Shares Short Prior Month
152.8 M
50 Day MA
12.014

Ford Motor Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Ford's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ford. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ford can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ford Motor. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ford's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ford.

Ford Implied Volatility

    
  36.47  
Ford's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ford Motor stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ford's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ford stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ford's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Ford. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ford to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ford because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Ford after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 12.08  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ford contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ford Motor will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.28% per day over the life of the 2024-03-22 option contract. With Ford trading at USD 12.06, that is roughly USD 0.27 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ford's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ford Motor options at the current volatility level of 36.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Ford Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ford's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ford in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.8011.7413.68
Details
26 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.2813.4914.97
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.350.490.73
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ford. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ford's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ford's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ford Motor.

Ford After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Ford at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ford or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ford, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Ford Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Ford's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ford's historical news coverage. Ford's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.14 and 14.02, respectively. We have considered Ford's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
12.06
12.08
After-hype Price
14.02
Upside
Ford is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ford Motor is based on 3 months time horizon.

Ford Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ford is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ford backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ford, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.10 
1.96
  0.03 
  0.01 
5 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
12.06
12.08
0.17 
784.00  
Notes

Ford Hype Timeline

As of March 19, 2024 Ford Motor is listed for 12.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Ford is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 12.08 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.17% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Ford is about 1420.29% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 12.05. The company reported the annual revenue of 176.19 B. Net Income to common stockholders was 4.33 B with gross profit before all taxes, overhead, and interest of 17.21 B. Taking into account the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days.
Check out Ford Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Ford Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Ford's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ford's future price movements. Getting to know how Ford rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ford may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Ford Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ford price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ford using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ford charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Ford Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Ford stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ford Motor, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ford based on analysis of Ford hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ford's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ford's related companies.
 2021 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.004810.10.18
Price To Sales Ratio0.610.280.17

Story Coverage note for Ford

The number of cover stories for Ford depends on current market conditions and Ford's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ford is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ford's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Ford Short Properties

Ford's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ford's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ford Motor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ford's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ford's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares OutstandingB
Cash And Short Term Investments40.2 B
When determining whether Ford Motor is a strong investment it is important to analyze Ford's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Ford's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Ford Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Ford Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Ford Motor information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ford's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

Complementary Tools for Ford Stock analysis

When running Ford's price analysis, check to measure Ford's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ford is operating at the current time. Most of Ford's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ford's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ford's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ford to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ford's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ford. If investors know Ford will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ford listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.938
Dividend Share
0.6
Earnings Share
1.08
Revenue Per Share
44.07
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.045
The market value of Ford Motor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ford that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ford's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ford's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ford's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ford's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ford's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ford is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ford's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.