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FutureFuel risk analysis

 
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FutureFuel rp

Stock@New York Stock Exchange 
United States USD
     
Use FutureFuel Corp risk analysis concurrently with your other holdings, portfolios, and investing themes to protect against small markets fluctuations and to back test it against optimization strategy that fits your risk preferences.  Analyze Themes
Investment horizon: 
  30 Days    Login   to change

Projected Return Density against Market

Allowing for 30-days total investment horizon, the stock has beta cooficient of 2.36 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, FutureFuel will likely underperform. In addition to that, FutureFuel Corp has alpha of 2.36 implying that it can potentially generate 2.36% excess return over S&P 500 after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
Predicted Return Density
 
Returns   
S&P 500   FutureFuel   
Allowing for 30-days total investment horizon, the coefficient of variation of FutureFuel is 295.7. The daily returns are destributed with a variance of 4.37 and standard deviation of 2.09. The mean deviation of FutureFuel Corp is currently at 1.69. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (S&P 500) has volatility of 0.55
alpha for FutureFuel Corp(alpha)= 2.36 
beta for FutureFuel Corp(beta) = 2.36 
volatility for FutureFuel Corp(volatility) = 2.09 

Actual Return Volatility

FutureFuel Corp accepts 2.09% volatility on return distribution over the 30 days horizon. S&P 500 shows 0.55% volatility of returns over 30 trading days.
Daily Returns (%)
Market   Equity   
 
    
May 01 2013
 12.26 
  
 12.01 
(0.25)  Macroaxis: -2.039151712887439 Down   2.04%  
Lowest period price (30 days)
May 20 2013
 13.78 
  
 14.20 
0.42  Macroaxis: 3.047895500725689 Up   3.05%  
Highest period price (30 days)
    
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FutureFuel Corp has a volatility of 2.09 and is 3.8 times more volatile than S&P 500. 27% of all equities and portfolios are less risky than FutureFuel. Compared with the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of FutureFuel Corp is lower than 27 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 30 days. Use FutureFuel Corp to protect against small markets fluctuations. The stock experiences normal downward trend, but the immediate impact on correlations cannot be determined at the moment . As market goes up, the company is expected to significantly outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, FutureFuel will likely underperform.

FutureFuel correlation with market

Poor diversification
Overlapping area represents amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding FutureFuel Corp. and equity matching GSPC index in the same portfolio

FutureFuel Current Risk Indicators

Risk Adjusted Performance0.1947
Market Risk Adjusted Performance0.3054
Mean Deviation1.69
Semi-Deviation1.5
Downside Deviation1.86
Coefficient Of Variation295.7
Standard Deviation2.09

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