Fibrogen Stock Price Prediction
FGEN Stock | USD 1.27 0.03 2.31% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
39
Oversold | Overbought |
FibroGen stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of FibroGen shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of FibroGen's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of FibroGen and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from FibroGen's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with FibroGen, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting FibroGen's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.536 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.40) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.29) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.43) | Wall Street Target Price 1.75 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of FibroGen based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The FibroGen stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on FibroGen over a specific investment horizon. Using FibroGen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FibroGen from the perspective of FibroGen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards FibroGen using FibroGen's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards FibroGen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of FibroGen's stock price.
FibroGen Implied Volatility | 511.69 |
FibroGen's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of FibroGen stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if FibroGen's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that FibroGen stock will not fluctuate a lot when FibroGen's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in FibroGen. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in FibroGen to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying FibroGen because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
FibroGen after-hype prediction price | USD 1.52 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
FibroGen |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FibroGen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FibroGen After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of FibroGen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FibroGen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FibroGen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
Expected price to next headline |
FibroGen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting FibroGen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FibroGen's historical news coverage. FibroGen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.08 and 15.61, respectively. We have considered FibroGen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
FibroGen is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FibroGen is based on 3 months time horizon.
FibroGen Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FibroGen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FibroGen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FibroGen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.65 | 14.09 | 0.25 | 0.12 | 11 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1.27 | 1.52 | 19.69 |
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FibroGen Hype Timeline
FibroGen is currently traded for 1.27. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. FibroGen is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.52 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 19.69%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.65%. The volatility of related hype on FibroGen is about 19339.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.15. The company currently holds 170.46 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.89, which is about average as compared to similar companies. FibroGen has a current ratio of 2.13, suggesting that it is liquid enough and is able to pay its financial obligations when due. Debt can assist FibroGen until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, FibroGen's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like FibroGen sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for FibroGen to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about FibroGen's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out FibroGen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.FibroGen Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to FibroGen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FibroGen's future price movements. Getting to know how FibroGen's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FibroGen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
HFBL | Home Federal Bancorp | 0.13 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.92 | (3.87) | 11.57 | |
BWMX | Betterware De Mexico | (0.62) | 7 per month | 1.99 | 0.20 | 5.55 | (3.21) | 16.47 | |
PVBC | Provident Bancorp | (0.02) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 3.01 | (3.22) | 10.45 | |
HTLFP | Heartland Financial USA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.84 | (0.04) | 1.45 | (1.32) | 5.37 | |
NRDBY | Nordea Bank Abp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.97 | (2.27) | 10.67 | |
CFX | Conflux Network | 0.00 | 0 per month | 7.80 | 0.05 | 13.64 | (14.29) | 46.05 | |
C-PN | Citigroup Capital XIII | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.48 | 0.02 | 0.51 | (0.64) | 5.08 |
FibroGen Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FibroGen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FibroGen using various technical indicators. When you analyze FibroGen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
About FibroGen Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of FibroGen stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as FibroGen, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of FibroGen based on analysis of FibroGen hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to FibroGen's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to FibroGen's related companies. 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.005662 | 0.003447 | 0.0261 | 0.0275 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.53 | 10.65 | 0.58 | 0.55 |
Story Coverage note for FibroGen
The number of cover stories for FibroGen depends on current market conditions and FibroGen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FibroGen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FibroGen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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FibroGen Short Properties
FibroGen's future price predictability will typically decrease when FibroGen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FibroGen often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FibroGen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FibroGen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 97.3 M | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 235.6 M |
Check out FibroGen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in FibroGen Stock, please use our How to Invest in FibroGen guide.Note that the FibroGen information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other FibroGen's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Complementary Tools for FibroGen Stock analysis
When running FibroGen's price analysis, check to measure FibroGen's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FibroGen is operating at the current time. Most of FibroGen's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FibroGen's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FibroGen's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FibroGen to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is FibroGen's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FibroGen. If investors know FibroGen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FibroGen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.536 | Earnings Share (2.92) | Revenue Per Share 1.518 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.21) | Return On Assets (0.36) |
The market value of FibroGen is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FibroGen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FibroGen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FibroGen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FibroGen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FibroGen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FibroGen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FibroGen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FibroGen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.