Federated National Price Prediction

Federated National Holding Company -- USA Stock  

USD 16.2  0.35  2.21%

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring Federated National headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Federated National Holding Company brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Federated National hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Federated National Holding Company from the prospective of Federated National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Federated National over a specific investment horizon. Additionally see Federated National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Federated National estimiated after-hype price volatility

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline
October 19, 2017
16.2
Current Value
Downside upside
16.29
After-hype Price
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
21.99
Upside
Upside upside
Federated National is not very risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Federated National H is based on 1 month time horizon.

Federated National Hype Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.65% 1.9% 0.09%  0.5% 1 Events / Month2 Events / MonthVery soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
16.216.290.56%
1,357% 

Federated National Hype Timeline

Federated National Holding Company is currently traded for 16.2 . This company has historical hype elasticity of 0.09 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.5. Federated National Holding Company is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 16.29. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 1357.14%. The price appreciation on the next news is estimated to be 0.56% where as daily expected return is currently at 0.65%. The volatility of related hype on Federated National is about 245.69% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 16.7. The company reported previous year revenue of 366.5 M. Net Loss for the year was (2.63 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 20.27 M. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be very soon.
Additionally see Federated National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Federated National Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Expected
Short fall
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Loews Corporation 0.02 2 per month 0.19 (0.0912) (0.36)  0.74 (0.74)  1.62 
Alleghany Corporation 2.85 1 per month 0.00 (0.22)  0.00  0.86 (1.2)  2.71 
Chubb Limited 1.39 1 per month 0.00  0.15 (0.61)  1.54 (0.65)  2.61 
Cigna Corporation 0.43 2 per month 0.18  0.0797 (0.74)  1.39 (0.71)  2.55 
OneBeacon Insurance Group Ltd 0.02 1 per month 0.00 (0.55)  0.00  0.11 (0.06)  1.37 
Patriot National Inc(0.07) 1 per month 5.9  0.12 (5.88)  16.39 (9.63)  21.84