Federated National Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

FNHC -- USA Stock  

USD 23.01  0.29  1.24%

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring Federated National headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Federated National Holding Company brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Federated National hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Federated National Holding Company from the prospective of Federated National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Federated National over a specific investment horizon. Additionally see Federated National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Federated National After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline

Federated National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

July 23, 2018
23.01
Current Value
23.00
After-hype Price
Target Odds
  
26.90
Upside
Federated National is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Federated National H is based on 1 month time horizon.

Federated National Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.03% 1.30% 0.01%  0.01% 3 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
23.0123.000.04%
295.45% 

Federated National Hype Timeline

Federated National Holding Company is currently traded for23.01. This company has historical hype elasticity of -0.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Federated National Holding Company is projected to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 23.0. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 295.45%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.04% where as daily expected return is currently at 0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Federated National is about 663.27% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 23.02. About 23.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.46. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Federated National Holding Company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.51. This company last dividend was issued on 2018-07-31. The firm had 3:2 split on 2004-09-08. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be in about 3 days.
Additionally see Federated National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Federated National Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Loews Corporation 0.29 6 per month 0.74 (0.09)  1.12 (1.26)  3.95 
Chubb Limited 0.27 4 per month 0.62  0.12  1.21 (1.40)  3.64 
EMC Insurance Group 0.51 3 per month 1.61 (0.0026)  2.28 (1.88)  6.60 
Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited 0.72 2 per month 0.00 (0.13)  2.41 (2.36)  5.64 
American Financial Group 0.92 3 per month 1.20 (0.07)  1.15 (1.67)  4.38 
Atlas Financial Holdings(0.30) 3 per month 0.00 (0.28)  4.32 (5.00)  10.71 
The Allstate Corporation 0.33 4 per month 0.97 (0.06)  1.56 (2.07)  4.03 
AXIS Capital Holdings Limited(0.52) 2 per month 0.94 (0.0089)  1.21 (1.79)  3.91 
Federated National Holding Company(0.44) 3 per month 1.09 (0.0058)  2.06 (1.71)  4.88 
CNA Financial Corporation 0.18 3 per month 0.58  0.0323  1.49 (1.06)  3.58 

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Additionally see Federated National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Chance of Distress module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
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