Federated National Risk Analysis

Federated National Holding Company -- USA Stock  

USD 16.2  0.28  1.76%

Macroaxis considers Federated National not very risky given 1 month investment horizon. Federated National H secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.3076 which denotes Federated National H had 0.3076% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards predicting volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. By reviewing Federated National H technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.6075% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Federated National H Coefficient Of Variation of 325.07, Mean Deviation of 1.51 and Downside Deviation of 1.45 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Federated National Market Sensitivity

As returns on market increase, returns on owning Federated National are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, Federated National is expected to significantly outperform it.
One Month Beta |Analyze Federated National H Demand Trend
Check current 30 days Federated National correlation with market (DOW)
β = -2.3874
Federated National Large Negative BetaFederated National H Beta Legend

Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Federated National Holding Company has beta of -2.3874 suggesting as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Federated National Holding Company are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Federated National is expected to outperform its benchmark. Moreover, Federated National Holding Company has an alpha of 0.9321 implying that it can potentially generate 0.9321% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the coefficient of variation of Federated National is 325.07. The daily returns are destributed with a variance of 3.9 and standard deviation of 1.97. The mean deviation of Federated National Holding Company is currently at 1.51. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 0.26
α
Alpha over DOW
= 0.93 
βBeta against DOW=(2.39) 
σ
Overall volatility
= 1.97 
 IrInformation ratio = 0.23 

Actual Return Volatility

Federated National Holding Company inherits 1.9749% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 30 days horizon. DOW inherits 0.2475% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 30 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

Market Risk Breakdown

Federated National Volatility Factors

30 Days Market Risk

Not very risky

Chance of Distress in 24 months

Almost imposible

30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Completely opposite to market

Total Debt

Federated National H Total Debt History

Total Debt

Largest Trends

Federated National Largest Period Trend

Investment Outlook

Federated National Investment Opportunity
Federated National Holding Company has a volatility of 1.97 and is 7.88 times more volatile than DOW. 18% of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Federated National. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Federated National Holding Company is lower than 18 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 30 days. Use Federated National Holding Company to enhance returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences large bullish trend. Check odds of Federated National to be traded at $17.82 in 30 days. As returns on market increase, returns on owning Federated National are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, Federated National is expected to significantly outperform it.

Federated National correlation with market

Very good diversification
Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Federated National Holding Com and equity matching DJI index in the same portfolio.

Volatility Indicators

Federated National Current Risk Indicators