Fossil Price Prediction

Fossil Group Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 9.33  0.7  6.98%

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring Fossil headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Fossil Group Inc brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Fossil hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Fossil Group Inc from the prospective of Fossil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Fossil over a specific investment horizon. Additionally see Fossil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Fossil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline
January 20, 2018
9.33
Current Value
Downside upside
11.6
After-hype Price
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
26.3
Upside
Upside upside
Fossil is relatively volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fossil Group Inc is based on 1 month time horizon.

Fossil Hype Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 1.47% 4.77% 1.26%  0.87% 1 Events / Month1 Events / MonthVery soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
9.3311.615.65%
554.65% 

Fossil Hype Timeline

Fossil Group Inc is currently traded for9.33. This company has historical hype elasticity of 1.26 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.87. Fossil Group Inc is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 11.6. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 554.65%. The price appreciation on the next news is estimated to be 15.65% where as daily expected return is currently at 1.47%. The volatility of related hype on Fossil is about 801.68% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 10.2. The company currently holds 484.53 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 74.2 indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Fossil Group Inc has Current Ratio of 2.27 suggesting that it is liquid enough and is able to pay its financial obligations when they are due. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be very soon.
Additionally see Fossil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Fossil Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Expected
Short fall
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Macys Inc 0.27 1 per month 2.87 (0.0055) (1.91)  4.45 (3.72)  9.1 
Dollar General Corporation 0.45 1 per month 0.00  0.19 (1.06)  2.09 (0.67)  4.26 
The Home Depot Inc 2.32 1 per month 0.00  0.2 (0.89)  1.51 (0.75)  2.53 
Dollar Tree Inc(1.08) 2 per month 0.71 (0.0087) (1.15)  2.09 (1.71)  4.84 
Vipshop Holdings Limited 0.13 1 per month 1.72  0.3 (4.13)  9.78 (2.58)  16.16 
Aarons Inc 1.48 1 per month 1.04  0.0956 (1.63)  5.03 (2.26)  8.76