Fossil Price Prediction

Fossil Group -- USA Stock  

USD 14.20  0.17  1.18%

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring Fossil headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Fossil Group brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Fossil hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Fossil Group from the prospective of Fossil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Fossil over a specific investment horizon. Additionally see Fossil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Fossil After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline

Fossil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

April 24, 2018
14.20
Current Value
14.29
After-hype Price
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
24.31
Upside
Fossil is not very volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fossil Group is based on 2 months time horizon.

Fossil Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.14% 3.34% 0.06%  0.01% 2 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
14.2014.290.63%
759.09% 

Fossil Hype Timeline

Fossil Group is currently traded for14.20. This company has historical hype elasticity of 0.06 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Fossil Group is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 14.29. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 759.09%. The price appreciation on the next news is estimated to be 0.63% where as daily expected return is currently at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Fossil is about 4175.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 14.21. The company reported previous year revenue of 2.79 B. Net Loss for the year was (478.17 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.36 B. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be in a few days.
Additionally see Fossil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Fossil Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Macys(0.20) 2 per month 1.52  0.20  3.79 (3.34)  8.00 
Dollar General Corporation(0.57) 3 per month 1.63  0.0636  2.88 (2.69)  7.44 
The Home Depot 0.98 2 per month 0.00 (0.0149)  2.37 (1.99)  5.66 
Dollar Tree(0.34) 3 per month 0.00 (0.0443)  2.32 (1.71)  16.15 
Vipshop Holdings Limited(0.50) 3 per month 0.00 (0.10)  3.51 (5.09)  13.55 
Aarons 1.91 3 per month 1.52  0.0805  2.26 (2.86)  6.59 
Best Buy Co(0.95) 3 per month 1.85  0.0725  3.64 (2.73)  8.03 
Big Lots 0.13 1 per month 0.00 (0.23)  2.21 (3.11)  12.30 
Barnes Noble(0.1) 3 per month 2.49  0.21  6.00 (3.33)  13.71 
Fossil Group 0.44 2 per month 3.16  0.0511  4.30 (4.31)  14.68 

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