Fossil Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

FOSL -- USA Stock  

USD 23.31  1.20  4.90%

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring Fossil headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Fossil Group brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Fossil hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Fossil Group from the prospective of Fossil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Fossil over a specific investment horizon. Additionally see Fossil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Fossil After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline

Fossil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

August 15, 2018
23.31
Current Value
23.35
After-hype Price
Target Odds
  
38.08
Upside
Fossil is not very volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fossil Group is based on 1 month time horizon.

Fossil Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.11% 4.91% 0.04%  0.04% 4 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
23.3123.350.17%
1,327% 

Fossil Hype Timeline

Fossil Group is currently traded for23.31. This company has historical hype elasticity of 0.04 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Fossil Group is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 23.35. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 1327.03%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 0.17% where as daily expected return is currently at -0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Fossil is about 1312.83% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 23.35. The company reported previous year revenue of 2.76 B. Net Loss for the year was (141.35 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.36 B. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be in about 4 days.
Additionally see Fossil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Fossil Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Foot Locker(0.67) 3 per month 0.00 (0.32)  1.30 (2.57)  4.59 
Caleres 1.00 3 per month 1.72  0.12  2.54 (2.59)  8.17 
Forward Industries(0.06) 6 per month 0.00 (0.05)  3.97 (6.52)  20.07 
Fossil Group 0.37 4 per month 0.00 (0.0214)  5.49 (10.19)  17.14 
NIKE 0.80 4 per month 0.77  0.12  1.43 (1.38)  3.77 
Rocky Brands(0.30) 3 per month 2.49  0.07  2.93 (3.83)  27.04 
Crocs 0.32 5 per month 2.06  0.07  3.83 (3.18)  12.18 
Deckers Outdoor Corporation 1.18 5 per month 2.48  0.12  3.48 (2.06)  10.36 
TOTAL S A 0.41 5 per month 0.00 (0.06)  1.54 (1.19)  5.25 
Service Corporation International 0.69 4 per month 0.32  0.24  1.71 (1.36)  7.69 

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Additionally see Fossil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using aroon oscillator and other momentum ratios.