Fossil Group Stock Performance

FOSL Stock  USD 0.85  0.02  2.30%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 2.31, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Fossil will likely underperform. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Fossil Group historical returns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity current trending patterns. Fossil Group has an expected return of -0.86%. Please make sure to confirm Fossil Group total risk alpha, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the Kurtosis and day typical price to decide if Fossil Group performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

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Over the last 90 days Fossil Group has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite unsteady performance in the last few months, the Stock's basic indicators remain quite persistent which may send shares a bit higher in April 2024. The latest mess may also be a sign of long-standing up-swing for the company institutional investors. ...more
Last Split Factor
3:2
Last Split Date
2004-04-12
1
Can Fossil Group Inc Stock Rise to the Top of Consumer Cyclical Sector Tuesday - InvestorsObserver
01/02/2024
2
MIJO CONNECTED Launches with Disruptive New Smartwatch Platform Built with MicroEJ Wearable OS
01/08/2024
3
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01/24/2024
4
Fossil Group, Inc. 7 percent Senior Notes due 2026 Short Interest Update
02/16/2024
5
Investor names director candidates at Fossil Group after stock price drop
02/20/2024
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Fossil Group, Inc. Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Release and Conference Call
03/06/2024
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Fossil Non-GAAP EPS of -0.30, revenue of 421.3M
03/13/2024
Begin Period Cash Flow198.8 M
Free Cash Flow-69.4 M
  

Fossil Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  152.00  in Fossil Group on December 19, 2023 and sell it today you would lose (65.00) from holding Fossil Group or give up 42.76% of portfolio value over 90 days. Fossil Group is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 3.3013% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 29% of stocks are less volatile than Fossil, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Fossil is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 5.55 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.26 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The NYSE Composite is currently generating roughly 0.17 per unit of volatility.

Fossil Market Risk Analysis

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Fossil's investment risk. Standard deviation is the most common way to measure market volatility of stocks, such as Fossil Group, and traders can use it to determine the average amount a Fossil's price has deviated from the expected return over a period of time. It is calculated by determining the expected price for the established period and then subtracting this figure from each price point. The differences are then squared, summed, and averaged to produce the variance.

Sharpe Ratio = -0.2595

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Estimated Market Risk

 3.3
  actual daily
29
71% of assets are more volatile

Expected Return

 -0.86
  actual daily
0
Most of other assets have higher returns

Risk-Adjusted Return

 -0.26
  actual daily
0
Most of other assets perform better
Based on monthly moving average Fossil is not performing at its full potential. However, if added to a well diversified portfolio the total return can be enhanced and market risk can be reduced. You can increase risk-adjusted return of Fossil by adding Fossil to a well-diversified portfolio.

Fossil Fundamentals Growth

Fossil Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Fossil, and Fossil fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Fossil Stock performance.

About Fossil Performance

To evaluate Fossil Group Stock as a possible investment, you need to clearly understand its upside potential, downside risk, and overall future performance outlook. You may be satisfied when Fossil generates a 15% return over the last few months, but what if the market is generating 25% over the same period? In this case, it makes sense to compare Fossil Stock's performance with different market indexes, such as the Dow or NASDAQ Composite. These indexes can act as benchmarks that will help you to understand Fossil Group market performance in a much more refined way. The Macroaxis performance score is an integer between 0 and 100 that represents Fossil's market performance from a risk-adjusted return perspective. Generally speaking, the higher the score, the better is overall performance as compared to other investors. The score is normalized against the average investing universe (the best we can interpret from the data available). Within this methodology, scores of individual equity instruments will always be inferior to the scores of portfolios of equities as portfolios typically diversify a lot of unsystematic risks away. The formula to derive the Macroaxis score bases on multiple unequally-weighted factors. For more information, refer to our portfolio performance evaluation section.
Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Last ReportedProjected for 2024
Return On Capital Employed(0.03)(0.02)
Return On Assets(0.04)(0.04)
Return On Equity(0.11)(0.12)

Things to note about Fossil Group performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Fossil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Fossil Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Fossil Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Fossil Group has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Fossil Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.41 B. Net Loss for the year was (157.09 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 830.68 M.
Fossil Group currently holds about 162.61 M in cash with (59.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.14, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Fossil Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 63.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Fossil Non-GAAP EPS of -0.30, revenue of 421.3M
Evaluating Fossil's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Fossil's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Fossil's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Fossil's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Fossil's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Fossil's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Fossil's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Fossil's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Fossil's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Fossil's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Fossil's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.
When determining whether Fossil Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze Fossil's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Fossil's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Fossil Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Fossil Group. Also, note that the market value of any Company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state.
You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

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When running Fossil's price analysis, check to measure Fossil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fossil is operating at the current time. Most of Fossil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fossil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fossil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fossil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fossil's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fossil. If investors know Fossil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fossil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.82)
Earnings Share
(3.00)
Revenue Per Share
27.014
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.16)
Return On Assets
(0.05)
The market value of Fossil Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fossil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fossil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fossil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fossil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fossil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fossil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fossil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fossil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.