First Solar Stock Price Prediction
| FSLR Stock | USD 174.29 3.72 2.09% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
68
Oversold | Overbought |
First Solar stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of First Solar shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of First Solar's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of First Solar and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from First Solar's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with First Solar, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting First Solar's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.058 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.54 | EPS Estimate Current Year 13.6 | EPS Estimate Next Year 21.28 | Wall Street Target Price 222.48 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of First Solar based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The First stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on First Solar over a specific investment horizon. Using First Solar hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Solar from the perspective of First Solar response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards First Solar using First Solar's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards First using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of First Solar's stock price.
First Solar Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in First Solar's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards First. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of First Solar stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long First Solar may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about First Solar and may potentially protect profits, hedge First Solar with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 165.3733 | Short Percent 0.0584 | Short Ratio 2.08 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.8 M | 50 Day MA 158.6936 |
First Solar Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to First Solar's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in First. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding First can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around First Solar. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of First Solar's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about First Solar.
First Solar Implied Volatility | 68.51 |
First Solar's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of First Solar stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if First Solar's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that First Solar stock will not fluctuate a lot when First Solar's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in First Solar. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in First Solar to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying First because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
First Solar after-hype prediction price | USD 176.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current First contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that First Solar will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.28% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With First Solar trading at USD 174.29, that is roughly USD 7.46 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating First Solar's daily price movement you should consider acquiring First Solar options at the current volatility level of 68.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
First |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Solar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Solar After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Solar at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Solar or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Solar, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Solar Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Solar's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Solar's historical news coverage. First Solar's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 173.79 and 178.71, respectively. We have considered First Solar's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Solar is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Solar is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Solar Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Solar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Solar backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Solar, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 2.46 | 1.96 | 0.29 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
174.29 | 176.25 | 1.12 |
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First Solar Hype Timeline
First Solar is currently traded for 174.29. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.96, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.29. First is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 176.25 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 33.93%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 1.12%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.27%. The volatility of related hype on First Solar is about 230.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 174.58. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 3.32 B. Net Income was 830.78 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 127.66 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out First Solar Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.First Solar Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Solar's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Solar's future price movements. Getting to know how First Solar's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Solar may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ENPH | Enphase Energy | 6.65 | 11 per month | 3.25 | 0 | 6.52 | (4.39) | 23.96 | |
| RUN | Sunrun Inc | 1.50 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 9.60 | (8.16) | 28.48 | |
| CSIQ | Canadian Solar | 0.44 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 6.10 | (5.41) | 21.70 | |
| SPWR | SunPower | (0.16) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 15.14 | (9.59) | 37.53 | |
| SEDG | SolarEdge Technologies | (0.31) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.68 | (6.99) | 25.24 | |
| JKS | JinkoSolar Holding | 0.70 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.49 | (5.33) | 15.24 | |
| NOVA | Sunnova Energy International | (0.35) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 11.49 | (11.79) | 40.80 | |
| MAXN | Maxeon Solar Technologies | 0.08 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 11.23 | (9.79) | 26.62 |
First Solar Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About First Solar Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of First Solar stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First Solar, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First Solar based on analysis of First Solar hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to First Solar's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to First Solar's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 56.77 | 49.47 | 154.82 | 79.79 | PTB Ratio | 1.55 | 2.73 | 2.75 | 4.35 |
Story Coverage note for First Solar
The number of cover stories for First Solar depends on current market conditions and First Solar's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Solar is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Solar's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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First Solar Short Properties
First Solar's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Solar's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Solar often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Solar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Solar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 107.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 B |
Check out First Solar Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in First Stock, please use our How to Invest in First Solar guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First Solar's price analysis, check to measure First Solar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Solar is operating at the current time. Most of First Solar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Solar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Solar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Solar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity | |
| Technical Analysis Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data | |
| Global Correlations Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets | |
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Global Markets Map Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes | |
| Stock Tickers Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios | |
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Is First Solar's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Solar. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Solar listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.058 | Earnings Share 7.73 | Revenue Per Share 31.075 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.156 | Return On Assets 0.0595 |
The market value of First Solar is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Solar's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Solar's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Solar's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Solar's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Solar's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Solar is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Solar's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.