Granite Construction Incorporated Stock Price Prediction
| GVA Stock | USD 53.66 0.16 0.30% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
66
Oversold | Overbought |
Granite Construction stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Granite Construction shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Granite Construction's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Granite Construction and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Granite Construction's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Granite Construction Incorporated, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Granite Construction's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.295 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.21) | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.32 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.01 | Wall Street Target Price 61.8 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Granite Construction based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Granite stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Granite Construction over a specific investment horizon. Using Granite Construction hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Granite Construction Incorporated from the perspective of Granite Construction response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Granite Construction using Granite Construction's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Granite using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Granite Construction's stock price.
Granite Construction Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Granite Construction's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Granite. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Granite Construction stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Granite Construction may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Granite Construction and may potentially protect profits, hedge Granite Construction with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 45.2082 | Short Percent 0.1568 | Short Ratio 11.23 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.1 M | 50 Day MA 52.5316 |
Granite Construction Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Granite Construction's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Granite. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Granite can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Granite Construction Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Granite Construction's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Granite Construction.
Granite Construction Implied Volatility | 0.0 |
Granite Construction's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Granite Construction Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Granite Construction's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Granite Construction stock will not fluctuate a lot when Granite Construction's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Granite Construction. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Granite Construction to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Granite because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Granite Construction after-hype prediction price | USD 53.92 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Granite |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Granite Construction's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Granite Construction After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Granite Construction at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Granite Construction or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Granite Construction, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Granite Construction Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Granite Construction's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Granite Construction's historical news coverage. Granite Construction's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 52.48 and 55.36, respectively. We have considered Granite Construction's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Granite Construction is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Granite Construction is based on 3 months time horizon.
Granite Construction Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Granite Construction is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Granite Construction backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Granite Construction, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 1.44 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 8 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
53.66 | 53.92 | 0.19 |
|
Granite Construction Hype Timeline
On the 18th of April 2024 Granite Construction is traded for 53.66. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Granite is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 53.92 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Granite Construction is about 429.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 53.56. The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.51 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 43.6 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 369.49 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Granite Construction Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Granite Construction Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Granite Construction's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Granite Construction's future price movements. Getting to know how Granite Construction's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Granite Construction may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EME | EMCOR Group | (1.96) | 11 per month | 0.47 | 0.34 | 2.81 | (1.75) | 12.73 | |
| FIX | Comfort Systems USA | (1.89) | 12 per month | 1.53 | 0.22 | 4.03 | (2.51) | 17.56 | |
| PRIM | Primoris Services | (0.43) | 9 per month | 1.73 | 0.16 | 4.32 | (2.78) | 12.86 | |
| ROAD | Construction Partners | 0.38 | 10 per month | 2.12 | 0.15 | 3.22 | (3.03) | 10.85 | |
| MYRG | MYR Group | (1.92) | 8 per month | 2.40 | 0.08 | 3.25 | (3.33) | 8.98 | |
| MTRX | Matrix Service Co | (0.12) | 9 per month | 1.59 | 0.08 | 5.28 | (2.93) | 27.04 | |
| APG | Api GroupCorp | (0.48) | 12 per month | 1.38 | 0.12 | 2.78 | (2.08) | 8.67 | |
| GLDD | Great Lakes Dredge | (0.17) | 9 per month | 2.47 | (0) | 3.72 | (3.74) | 25.40 | |
| KBR | KBR Inc | 0.90 | 11 per month | 0.74 | 0.15 | 2.29 | (1.69) | 5.61 | |
| DY | Dycom Industries | (0.12) | 11 per month | 1.47 | 0.13 | 2.55 | (2.72) | 6.91 | |
| MTZ | MasTec Inc | 3.36 | 9 per month | 2.60 | 0.07 | 3.53 | (4.14) | 16.74 | |
| TPC | Tutor Perini | 0.12 | 10 per month | 2.20 | 0.16 | 6.61 | (3.88) | 27.66 | |
| STRL | Sterling Construction | (2.03) | 11 per month | 2.03 | 0.12 | 4.07 | (3.95) | 22.36 |
Granite Construction Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Granite price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Granite using various technical indicators. When you analyze Granite charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Granite Construction Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Granite Construction stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Granite Construction Incorporated, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Granite Construction based on analysis of Granite Construction hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Granite Construction's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Granite Construction's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0134 | 0.0102 | 0.0127 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.59 | 0.64 | 0.42 |
Story Coverage note for Granite Construction
The number of cover stories for Granite Construction depends on current market conditions and Granite Construction's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Granite Construction is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Granite Construction's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Granite Construction Short Properties
Granite Construction's future price predictability will typically decrease when Granite Construction's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Granite Construction Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Granite Construction's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Granite Construction's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 52.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 453.5 M |
Check out Granite Construction Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Complementary Tools for Granite Stock analysis
When running Granite Construction's price analysis, check to measure Granite Construction's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Granite Construction is operating at the current time. Most of Granite Construction's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Granite Construction's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Granite Construction's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Granite Construction to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Cryptocurrency Center Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency | |
| Theme Ratings Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Money Managers Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world | |
| Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments | |
| FinTech Suite Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Economic Indicators Top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing | |
| Technical Analysis Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data | |
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity |
Is Granite Construction's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Granite Construction. If investors know Granite will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Granite Construction listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.295 | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 0.97 | Revenue Per Share 79.973 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.183 |
The market value of Granite Construction is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Granite that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Granite Construction's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Granite Construction's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Granite Construction's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Granite Construction's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Granite Construction's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Granite Construction is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Granite Construction's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.