Herbalife Nutrition Stock Price Prediction
| HLF Stock | USD 8.84 0.25 2.91% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
39
Oversold | Overbought |
Herbalife Nutrition stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Herbalife Nutrition shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Herbalife Nutrition's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Herbalife Nutrition and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Herbalife Nutrition's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Herbalife Nutrition, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Herbalife Nutrition's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.81) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.53 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.06 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.64 | Wall Street Target Price 12.5 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Herbalife Nutrition based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Herbalife stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Herbalife Nutrition over a specific investment horizon. Using Herbalife Nutrition hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Herbalife Nutrition from the perspective of Herbalife Nutrition response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Herbalife Nutrition using Herbalife Nutrition's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Herbalife using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Herbalife Nutrition's stock price.
Herbalife Nutrition Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Herbalife Nutrition's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Herbalife. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Herbalife Nutrition stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Herbalife Nutrition may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Herbalife Nutrition and may potentially protect profits, hedge Herbalife Nutrition with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 12.8807 | Short Percent 0.1539 | Short Ratio 6.88 | Shares Short Prior Month 13.8 M | 50 Day MA 9.0226 |
Herbalife Nutrition Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Herbalife Nutrition's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Herbalife. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Herbalife can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Herbalife Nutrition. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Herbalife Nutrition's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Herbalife Nutrition.
Herbalife Nutrition Implied Volatility | 98.15 |
Herbalife Nutrition's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Herbalife Nutrition stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Herbalife Nutrition's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Herbalife Nutrition stock will not fluctuate a lot when Herbalife Nutrition's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Herbalife Nutrition. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Herbalife Nutrition to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Herbalife because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Herbalife Nutrition after-hype prediction price | USD 8.92 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Herbalife contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Herbalife Nutrition will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 6.13% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Herbalife Nutrition trading at USD 8.84, that is roughly USD 0.54 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Herbalife Nutrition's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Herbalife Nutrition options at the current volatility level of 98.15%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Herbalife |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Herbalife Nutrition's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Herbalife Nutrition After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Herbalife Nutrition at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Herbalife Nutrition or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Herbalife Nutrition, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Herbalife Nutrition Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Herbalife Nutrition's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Herbalife Nutrition's historical news coverage. Herbalife Nutrition's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.51 and 14.33, respectively. We have considered Herbalife Nutrition's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Herbalife Nutrition is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Herbalife Nutrition is based on 3 months time horizon.
Herbalife Nutrition Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Herbalife Nutrition is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Herbalife Nutrition backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Herbalife Nutrition, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 5.44 | 0.09 | 0.21 | 7 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.84 | 8.92 | 0.90 |
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Herbalife Nutrition Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of April Herbalife Nutrition is traded for 8.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.21. Herbalife is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 8.92 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.9%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Herbalife Nutrition is about 918.92%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.63. The company reported the last year's revenue of 5.06 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 142.2 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.34 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Herbalife Nutrition Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Herbalife Nutrition Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Herbalife Nutrition's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Herbalife Nutrition's future price movements. Getting to know how Herbalife Nutrition's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Herbalife Nutrition may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PG | Procter Gamble | (1.97) | 9 per month | 0.57 | 0.02 | 1.29 | (0.91) | 6.89 | |
| CL | Colgate Palmolive | (1.27) | 8 per month | 0.50 | 0.06 | 1.37 | (1.09) | 4.02 | |
| HIMS | Hims Hers Health | (0.90) | 10 per month | 2.49 | 0.11 | 7.67 | (4.72) | 36.38 | |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center | (0.36) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.42 | (4.95) | 24.02 | |
| SPB | Spectrum Brands Holdings | 1.54 | 11 per month | 1.38 | (0.01) | 2.39 | (2.43) | 10.89 |
Herbalife Nutrition Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Herbalife price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Herbalife using various technical indicators. When you analyze Herbalife charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Herbalife Nutrition Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Herbalife Nutrition stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Herbalife Nutrition, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Herbalife Nutrition based on analysis of Herbalife Nutrition hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Herbalife Nutrition's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Herbalife Nutrition's related companies. Story Coverage note for Herbalife Nutrition
The number of cover stories for Herbalife Nutrition depends on current market conditions and Herbalife Nutrition's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Herbalife Nutrition is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Herbalife Nutrition's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Herbalife Nutrition Short Properties
Herbalife Nutrition's future price predictability will typically decrease when Herbalife Nutrition's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Herbalife Nutrition often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Herbalife Nutrition's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Herbalife Nutrition's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 100.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 575.2 M |
Check out Herbalife Nutrition Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Herbalife Stock please use our How to Invest in Herbalife Nutrition guide.You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Complementary Tools for Herbalife Stock analysis
When running Herbalife Nutrition's price analysis, check to measure Herbalife Nutrition's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Herbalife Nutrition is operating at the current time. Most of Herbalife Nutrition's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Herbalife Nutrition's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Herbalife Nutrition's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Herbalife Nutrition to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Herbalife Nutrition's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Herbalife Nutrition. If investors know Herbalife will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Herbalife Nutrition listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.81) | Earnings Share 1.42 | Revenue Per Share 51.135 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.029 | Return On Assets 0.0926 |
The market value of Herbalife Nutrition is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Herbalife that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Herbalife Nutrition's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Herbalife Nutrition's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Herbalife Nutrition's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Herbalife Nutrition's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Herbalife Nutrition's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Herbalife Nutrition is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Herbalife Nutrition's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.