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Heritage risk analysis

 
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Heritage Oil Plc

Stock@OTC Market 
United States 
     
Use Heritage Oil Plc risk analysis concurrently with your other holdings, portfolios, and investing themes to protect against small markets fluctuations and to back test it against optimization strategy that fits your risk preferences.  Analyze Themes
Investment horizon: 
  30 Days    Login   to change

Projected Return Density against Market

Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Heritage Oil Plc has beta of -0.77 . This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Heritage are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Heritage Oil Plc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally, Heritage Oil Plc has negative alpha implying that risk taken by holding this securing is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming S&P 500
Predicted Return Density
 
Returns   
S&P 500   Heritage   
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, the coefficient of variation of Heritage is -272.53. The daily returns are destributed with a variance of 16.22 and standard deviation of 4.03. The mean deviation of Heritage Oil Plc is currently at 2.49. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (S&P 500) has volatility of 0.54
alpha for Heritage Oil Plc(alpha)=(0.77)
beta for Heritage Oil Plc(beta) =(0.77)
volatility for Heritage Oil Plc(volatility) = 4.03 

Actual Return Volatility

Heritage Oil Plc accepts 4.03% volatility on return distribution over the 30 days horizon. S&P 500 shows 0.55% volatility of returns over 30 trading days.
Daily Returns (%)
Market   Equity   
 
    
May 13 2013
 2.00 
  
 1.92 
(0.08)  Macroaxis: -4.0000000000000036 Down   4.00%  
Lowest period price (30 days)
April 19 2013
 2.74 
  
 2.74 
0.00  No Change   0.00%  
Highest period price (30 days)
    
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Heritage Oil Plc has a volatility of 4.03 and is 7.33 times more volatile than S&P 500. 53% of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Heritage. Compared with the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Heritage Oil Plc is higher than 53 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 30 days. Use Heritage Oil Plc to protect against small markets fluctuations. The otc stock experiences no pattern. Wait for more market signals and watch out for any hype. As returns on market increase, returns on owning Heritage are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, Heritage is likely to outperform the market.

Heritage correlation with market

Good diversification
Overlapping area represents amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Heritage Oil Plc and equity matching GSPC index in the same portfolio

Heritage Current Risk Indicators

Risk Adjusted Performance(0.19)
Market Risk Adjusted Performance1.94
Mean Deviation2.49
Semi-Deviation8.29
Downside Deviation8.18
Coefficient Of Variation(272.53)
Standard Deviation4.03

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