International Business Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

IBM -- USA Stock  

USD 151.35  1.32  0.88%

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with International Business Machines Corporation which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With International Business hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of International Business Machines Corporation from the prospective of International Business response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on International Business over a specific investment horizon. Please also check International Business Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

International Business After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline

International Business Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

September 25, 2018
151.35
Current Value
Downside
148.98
151.26
After-hype Price
Target Odds
  
153.54
Upside
International Business is not too risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of International Business is based on 1 month time horizon.

International Business Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.11% 0.76% 0.09%  0.03% 6 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
151.35151.260.06%
97.44% 

International Business Hype Timeline

On 25 of September International Business Machines Corporation is traded for 151.35. This company has historical hype elasticity of -0.09 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. International Business Machines Corporation is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 151.26. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 97.44%. The closing price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.06% where as daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on International Business is about 312.76% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 151.38. About 58.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.21. International Business Machines Corporation last dividend was issued on 2018-08-09. This company had 2:1 split on 1999-05-27. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be in about 6 days.
Please also check International Business Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

International Business Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Gartner 1.24 6 per month 0.43  0.06  1.53 (0.79)  3.49 
Digimarc Corporation 0.60 4 per month 1.88  0.24  7.65 (3.51)  14.13 
Edgewater Technology(0.01) 5 per month 2.58 (0.0346)  3.28 (4.84)  14.01 
EPAM Systems(0.34) 6 per month 0.00 (0.23)  1.25 (1.01)  5.71 
Accenture plc(0.68) 4 per month 0.22  0.07  1.25 (0.90)  2.49 
CDW Corporation 0.57 5 per month 0.41 (0.0309)  0.98 (0.78)  2.74 
Computer Task Group Incorporated(0.11) 4 per month 0.00 (0.38)  1.50 (3.01)  4.48 
DXC Technology Company(0.27) 4 per month 0.00  0.11  1.53 (0.69)  2.38 
CGI Group(0.14) 2 per month 0.57 (0.12)  1.38 (1.33)  2.02 
FRONTEO 1.57 2 per month 0.00  0.23  9.99  0.00  10.01 

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Please also check International Business Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.
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