ProShares UltraShort Risk Analysis And Volatility Evaluation

KOLD -- USA Etf  

USD 39.10  1.78  4.77%

We consider ProShares UltraShort not very risky. ProShares UltraShort maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e. Efficiency) of 0.0234 which implies ProShares UltraShort had 0.0234% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards forecasting volatility of an etf is to use all available market data together with etf specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for ProShares UltraShort which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the etf. Please check ProShares UltraShort Coefficient Of Variation of 2203.43, Semi Deviation of 3.02 and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0266 to confirm if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.0706%.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

ProShares UltraShort Market Sensitivity

As returns on market increase, returns on owning ProShares UltraShort are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, ProShares UltraShort is likely to outperform the market.
One Month Beta |Analyze ProShares UltraShort Demand Trend
Check current 30 days ProShares UltraShort correlation with market (DOW)
β = -0.1282
ProShares UltraShort Almost negative betaProShares UltraShort Beta Legend

ProShares UltraShort Technical Analysis

Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of seventeen. ProShares UltraShort Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input. View also all equity analysis or get more info about average price price transform indicator.

ProShares UltraShort Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 30 days, ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natrl Gas has beta of -0.1282 indicating as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding ProShares UltraShort are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natrl Gas is likely to outperform the market. Moreover, ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natrl Gas has an alpha of 0.1363 implying that it can potentially generate 0.1363% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the coefficient of variation of ProShares UltraShort is 4279.66. The daily returns are destributed with a variance of 9.13 and standard deviation of 3.02. The mean deviation of ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natrl Gas is currently at 2.16. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 0.39
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.14
β
Beta against DOW=0.13
σ
Overall volatility
=3.02
Ir
Information ratio =0.0108

ProShares UltraShort Return Volatility

ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natrl Gas inherits 3.0208% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 30 days horizon. DOW inherits 0.4208% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 30 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

Market Risk Breakdown

ProShares UltraShort Volatility Factors

30 Days Market Risk

Not very risky

Chance of Distress in 24 months

Almost imposible

30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Indifferent to market move

Investment Outlook

ProShares UltraShort Investment Opportunity

ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natrl Gas has a volatility of 3.02 and is 7.19 times more volatile than DOW. 27% of all equities and portfolios are less risky than ProShares UltraShort. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natrl Gas is lower than 27 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 30 days. Use ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natrl Gas to enhance returns of your portfolios. The etf experiences very speculative upward sentiment.. Check odds of ProShares UltraShort to be traded at $48.88 in 30 days. As returns on market increase, returns on owning ProShares UltraShort are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, ProShares UltraShort is likely to outperform the market.

ProShares UltraShort correlation with market

Good diversification
Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg and equity matching DJI index in the same portfolio.

ProShares UltraShort Volatility Indicators

ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natrl Gas Current Risk Indicators

Please see also Stocks Correlation. Please also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
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