Projected Return Density against Market
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Lundin has beta of 0.38 indicating as returns on market go up, Lundin avarage returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Lundin Petroleum AB will be expected to be much smaller as well. Moreover, Lundin Petroleum AB has alpha of 0.38 implying that it can potentially generate 0.38% excess return over Stockholm after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
Predicted Return Density
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, the coefficient of variation of Lundin is -1752.86. The daily returns are destributed with a variance of 3.0 and standard deviation of 1.73. The mean deviation of Lundin Petroleum AB is currently at 0.95. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Stockholm) has volatility of 0.66
Actual Return Volatility
Lundin Petroleum AB accepts 1.73% volatility on return distribution over the 30 days horizon. Stockholm accepts 0.65% volatility on return distribution over the 30 days horizon.