Macys Inc Stock Price Prediction

M Stock  USD 21.24  0.05  0.24%   
As of now, the relative strength index (rsi) of Macys' share price is at 59. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Macys' stock, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

59

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Macys Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Macys shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Macys' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Macys and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Macys' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Macys Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Macys' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.61)
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.01
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.76
Wall Street Target Price
19.33
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.96
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Macys based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Macys stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Macys over a specific investment horizon. Using Macys hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Macys Inc from the perspective of Macys response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Macys using Macys' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Macys using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Macys' stock price.

Macys Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Macys' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Macys. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Macys stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Macys may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Macys and may potentially protect profits, hedge Macys with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
15.655
Short Percent
0.0743
Short Ratio
2.28
Shares Short Prior Month
20.6 M
50 Day MA
19.1292

Macys Inc Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Macys' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Macys. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Macys can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Macys Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Macys' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Macys.

Macys Implied Volatility

    
  64.2  
Macys' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Macys Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Macys' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Macys stock will not fluctuate a lot when Macys' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Macys. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Macys to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Macys because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Macys after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 21.18  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Macys contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Macys Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.01% per day over the life of the 2024-03-22 option contract. With Macys trading at USD 21.24, that is roughly USD 0.85 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Macys' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Macys Inc options at the current volatility level of 64.2%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Macys Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Macys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Macys in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.7417.5223.36
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
13.4014.7316.35
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.120.140.16
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Macys. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Macys' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Macys' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Macys Inc.

Macys After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Macys at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Macys or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Macys, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Macys Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Macys' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Macys' historical news coverage. Macys' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.40 and 23.96, respectively. We have considered Macys' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
21.24
21.18
After-hype Price
23.96
Upside
Macys is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Macys Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Macys Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Macys is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Macys backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Macys, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.17 
2.81
  0.07 
  0.13 
8 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
21.24
21.18
0.28 
638.64  
Notes

Macys Hype Timeline

As of March 19, 2024 Macys Inc is listed for 21.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.13. Macys is expected to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 21.18. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next newsis expected to be -0.28% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Macys is about 355.7% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 21.37. About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.4. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Macys Inc has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.91. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of March 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 12th of June 2006. Taking into account the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Macys Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Macys Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Macys' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Macys' future price movements. Getting to know how Macys rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Macys may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
WWayfair 3.27 9 per month 3.22  0.04  9.34 (5.77) 20.42 
DIBS1StdibsCom(0.08)9 per month 2.64  0.1  8.04 (5.79) 17.90 
ANAutoNation 0.80 12 per month 1.72  0.07  3.73 (3.06) 11.27 
BQBoqii Holding Limited(0.01)2 per month 0.00 (0.17) 10.34 (10.81) 58.00 
FLFoot Locker(0.35)9 per month 0.00 (0.06) 6.18 (4.77) 39.34 
HDHome Depot 2.96 7 per month 0.71  0.04  2.02 (1.58) 5.22 
JDJD Inc Adr 0.47 7 per month 3.03  0.02  5.86 (4.87) 19.88 
LELands End(0.06)9 per month 0.00 (0.05) 5.38 (5.44) 16.45 
LLLL Flooring Holdings 0.11 8 per month 0.00 (0.28) 5.66 (5.73) 16.26 

Macys Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Macys price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Macys using various technical indicators. When you analyze Macys charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Macys Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Macys stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Macys Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Macys based on analysis of Macys hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Macys's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Macys's related companies.
 2014 2020 2023 2024 (projected)
Price Earnings Ratio8.815.5148.4650.88
Short Term Coverage Ratios2.983.6935.6437.43

Story Coverage note for Macys

The number of cover stories for Macys depends on current market conditions and Macys' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Macys is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Macys' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Macys Short Properties

Macys' future price predictability will typically decrease when Macys' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Macys Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Macys' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Macys' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding278.2 M
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsB
When determining whether Macys Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Macys' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Macys' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Macys Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Macys Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.

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When running Macys' price analysis, check to measure Macys' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Macys is operating at the current time. Most of Macys' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Macys' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Macys' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Macys to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Macys' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Macys. If investors know Macys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Macys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.61)
Dividend Share
0.662
Earnings Share
0.38
Revenue Per Share
87.039
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.02)
The market value of Macys Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Macys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Macys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Macys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Macys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Macys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Macys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Macys is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Macys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.