Mercantil (Brazil) Price Prediction
| MERC4 Preferred Stock | BRL 7.71 0.00 0.00% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
45
Oversold | Overbought |
Mercantil do Brasil preferred stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Mercantil shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Mercantil's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Mercantil and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Mercantil's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Mercantil do Brasil, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether preferred stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Mercantil based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Mercantil stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Mercantil over a specific investment horizon. Using Mercantil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mercantil do Brasil from the perspective of Mercantil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Mercantil. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Mercantil to buy its preferred stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Mercantil because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell preferred stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Mercantil after-hype prediction price | BRL 7.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as preferred stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Mercantil |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mercantil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mercantil After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mercantil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mercantil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Preferred Stock prices, such as prices of Mercantil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mercantil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mercantil's preferred stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mercantil's historical news coverage. Mercantil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.97 and 14.45, respectively. We have considered Mercantil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mercantil is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mercantil do Brasil is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mercantil Preferred Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mercantil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mercantil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Preferred Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mercantil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 6.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.71 | 7.71 | 0.00 |
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Mercantil Hype Timeline
Mercantil do Brasil is now traded for 7.71on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Mercantil is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Mercantil is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.71. About 74.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.7. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Mercantil do Brasil last dividend was issued on the 7th of March 2022. The entity had 1:10 split on the 24th of January 2008. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Mercantil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Mercantil Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mercantil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mercantil's future price movements. Getting to know how Mercantil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mercantil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ITUB4 | Ita Unibanco Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.35 | (0.05) | 1.99 | (2.11) | 8.00 | |
| BBAS3 | Banco do Brasil | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.94 | 0.02 | 2.15 | (1.51) | 7.03 | |
| PETR4 | Petrleo Brasileiro SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.10 | 0.03 | 2.58 | (2.72) | 12.83 | |
| VALE3 | Vale SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.06 | (2.42) | 6.98 |
Mercantil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mercantil price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mercantil using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mercantil charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Mercantil Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Mercantil stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Mercantil do Brasil, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Mercantil based on analysis of Mercantil hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Mercantil's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Mercantil's related companies. Story Coverage note for Mercantil
The number of cover stories for Mercantil depends on current market conditions and Mercantil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mercantil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mercantil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Mercantil Short Properties
Mercantil's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mercantil's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mercantil do Brasil often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mercantil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mercantil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 18 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -3.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.8 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.91 | |
| Shares Float | 2.5 M |
Check out Mercantil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Mercantil do Brasil information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mercantil's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Complementary Tools for Mercantil Preferred Stock analysis
When running Mercantil's price analysis, check to measure Mercantil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mercantil is operating at the current time. Most of Mercantil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mercantil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mercantil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mercantil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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