Microsoft Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

MSFT -- USA Stock  

USD 113.53  1.83  1.64%

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Microsoft Corporation which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Microsoft hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Microsoft Corporation from the prospective of Microsoft response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Microsoft over a specific investment horizon. Please see also Microsoft Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Microsoft After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline

Microsoft Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

September 20, 2018
113.53
Current Value
Downside
109.11
111.81
After-hype Price
Target Odds
  
114.51
Upside
Microsoft is not too risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Microsoft is based on 1 month time horizon.

Microsoft Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.21% 0.90% 0.11%  0.03% 5 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
113.53111.810.10%
166.67% 

Microsoft Hype Timeline

Microsoft Corporation is now traded for113.53. This company has historical hype elasticity of 0.11 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Microsoft Corporation is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 111.81. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 166.67%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 0.1% where as daily expected return is now at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Microsoft is about 702.8% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 113.56. The company reported previous year revenue of 110.36 B. Net Income was 16.57 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 72.01 B. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be in about 5 days.
Please see also Microsoft Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Microsoft Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BlackLine 0.41 3 per month 0.00  0.34  3.61 (1.63)  7.52 
CA 0.08 4 per month 0.00 (0.60)  0.23 (0.11)  0.55 
Determine(0.0399) 5 per month 7.67  0.0393  14.55 (16.54)  36.35 
Dell Technologies 0.19 3 per month 0.36  0.0236  0.85 (0.84)  2.81 
EVO Payments(0.35) 6 per month 1.78  0.14  4.08 (4.06)  8.46 
EVERTEC(1.00) 3 per month 0.00 (0.26)  1.87 (2.12)  7.03 
F5 Networks 1.01 4 per month 0.00  0.1  0.91 (0.35)  1.51 
Fair Isaac Corporation(0.34) 4 per month 1.09  0.016  1.31 (2.41)  4.00 
Five9 1.22 3 per month 0.00 (0.09)  1.26 (2.34)  7.33 
Black Knight 0.1 3 per month 0.38 (0.13)  1.04 (0.65)  2.22 

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Latest Prospective on Microsoft

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Please see also Microsoft Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Chance of Distress module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
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