Microsoft Price Prediction

Microsoft Corporation -- USA Stock  

USD 77.91  0.9  1.14%

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring Microsoft headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Microsoft Corporation brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Microsoft hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Microsoft Corporation from the prospective of Microsoft response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Microsoft over a specific investment horizon. Please see also Microsoft Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Microsoft estimiated after-hype price volatility

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline
October 22, 2017
77.91
Current Value
Downside upside
78.04
After-hype Price
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
79.96
Upside
Upside upside
Microsoft is not too risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Microsoft is based on 1 month time horizon.

Microsoft Hype Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.26% 0.64% 0.13%  0.09% 1 Events / Month1 Events / MonthVery soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
77.9178.040.17%
130.61% 

Microsoft Hype Timeline

Microsoft Corporation is now traded for 77.91 . This company has historical hype elasticity of 0.13 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Microsoft Corporation is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 78.04. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 130.61%. The price appreciation on the next news is estimated to be 0.17% where as daily expected return is now at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Microsoft is about 176.96% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 78.0. The company reported previous year revenue of 89.95 B. Net Income was 21.2 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 55.69 B. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be very soon.
Please see also Microsoft Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Microsoft Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Expected
Short fall
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Fiserv Inc 0.31 1 per month 0.29 (0.12) (0.45)  0.7 (0.88)  2.29 
Amdocs Limited(0.07) 1 per month 0.00 (0.067)  0.00  0.75 (0.53)  1.4 
Red Hat Inc(0.17) 1 per month 0.00  0.38 (1.1)  2.47 (0.51)  4.43 
Intuit Inc 1.51 1 per month 0.49 (0.12) (0.57)  1.27 (1.08)  2.69 
Kingtone Wirelessinfo Solution Holding Ltd 0.00 1 per month 3.45  0.12 (5.52)  13.11 (6.71)  24.3 
ManTech International Corporation 0.59 1 per month 0.28  0.22 (0.98)  2.08 (1.2)  3.53