Nisource Stock Price Prediction
| NI Stock | USD 28.18 0.25 0.90% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
55
Oversold | Overbought |
NiSource stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of NiSource shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of NiSource's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of NiSource and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from NiSource's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with NiSource, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting NiSource's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.81 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.72 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.85 | Wall Street Target Price 29.96 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of NiSource based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The NiSource stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on NiSource over a specific investment horizon. Using NiSource hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NiSource from the perspective of NiSource response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards NiSource using NiSource's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards NiSource using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of NiSource's stock price.
NiSource Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in NiSource's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards NiSource. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of NiSource stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long NiSource may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about NiSource and may potentially protect profits, hedge NiSource with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 26.3973 | Short Percent 0.0154 | Short Ratio 1.26 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.6 M | 50 Day MA 26.767 |
NiSource Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to NiSource's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in NiSource. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding NiSource can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around NiSource. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of NiSource's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about NiSource.
NiSource Implied Volatility | 19.75 |
NiSource's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NiSource stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NiSource's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NiSource stock will not fluctuate a lot when NiSource's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in NiSource. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in NiSource to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying NiSource because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
NiSource after-hype prediction price | USD 28.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
NiSource |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NiSource's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NiSource After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NiSource at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NiSource or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NiSource, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NiSource Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NiSource's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NiSource's historical news coverage. NiSource's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.22 and 29.08, respectively. We have considered NiSource's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NiSource is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NiSource is based on 3 months time horizon.
NiSource Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NiSource is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NiSource backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NiSource, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 0.93 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 13 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
28.18 | 28.15 | 0.11 |
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NiSource Hype Timeline
As of April 25, 2024 NiSource is listed for 28.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. NiSource is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 28.15. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.16%. The volatility of related hype on NiSource is about 297.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.23. About 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.56. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. NiSource last dividend was issued on the 29th of April 2024. The entity had 2545:1000 split on the 2nd of July 2015. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 13 days. Check out NiSource Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.NiSource Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NiSource's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NiSource's future price movements. Getting to know how NiSource's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NiSource may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NJR | NewJersey Resources | 0.02 | 9 per month | 1.22 | (0.01) | 2.05 | (1.99) | 7.11 | |
| NWN | Northwest Natural Gas | 0.10 | 8 per month | 2.36 | (0.02) | 2.98 | (2.70) | 17.15 | |
| UGI | UGI Corporation | (0.39) | 9 per month | 1.63 | 0.07 | 2.71 | (2.81) | 17.74 | |
| SR | Spire Inc | (0.48) | 7 per month | 1.04 | (0.01) | 2.36 | (2.15) | 7.42 | |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities | 1.50 | 6 per month | 1.54 | (0) | 2.24 | (2.57) | 7.29 | |
| OGS | One Gas | (0.17) | 9 per month | 1.45 | 0.04 | 2.60 | (2.16) | 7.90 | |
| NIMC | NiSource Unit | 1.30 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.66 | (1.54) | 6.93 | |
| UGIC | UGI Corp Unit | (0.27) | 2 per month | 1.66 | 0.07 | 3.43 | (3.09) | 15.28 | |
| ATO | Atmos Energy | 0.20 | 12 per month | 0.75 | (0.02) | 1.99 | (1.61) | 4.71 | |
| RGCO | RGC Resources | 1.32 | 8 per month | 2.47 | 0.01 | 4.08 | (4.38) | 11.05 |
NiSource Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NiSource price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NiSource using various technical indicators. When you analyze NiSource charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About NiSource Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of NiSource stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as NiSource, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of NiSource based on analysis of NiSource hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to NiSource's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to NiSource's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0368 | 0.0391 | 0.0414 | 0.0393 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.22 | 1.91 | 2.01 | 2.11 |
Story Coverage note for NiSource
The number of cover stories for NiSource depends on current market conditions and NiSource's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NiSource is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NiSource's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NiSource Short Properties
NiSource's future price predictability will typically decrease when NiSource's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NiSource often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NiSource's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NiSource's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 447.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.2 B |
Check out NiSource Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in NiSource Stock please use our How to Invest in NiSource guide.You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
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When running NiSource's price analysis, check to measure NiSource's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NiSource is operating at the current time. Most of NiSource's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NiSource's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NiSource's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NiSource to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is NiSource's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NiSource. If investors know NiSource will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NiSource listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | Dividend Share 1.015 | Earnings Share 1.48 | Revenue Per Share 13.231 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) |
The market value of NiSource is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NiSource that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NiSource's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NiSource's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NiSource's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NiSource's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NiSource's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NiSource is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NiSource's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.