Novo Nordisk As Stock Price Prediction
| NVO Stock | USD 125.26 2.55 2.08% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
46
Oversold | Overbought |
Novo Nordisk AS stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Novo Nordisk shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Novo Nordisk's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Novo Nordisk and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Novo Nordisk's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Novo Nordisk AS, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Novo Nordisk's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.631 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.81 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.33 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4 | Wall Street Target Price 144.44 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Novo Nordisk based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Novo stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Novo Nordisk over a specific investment horizon. Using Novo Nordisk hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Novo Nordisk AS from the perspective of Novo Nordisk response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Novo Nordisk using Novo Nordisk's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Novo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Novo Nordisk's stock price.
Novo Nordisk Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Novo Nordisk's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Novo. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Novo Nordisk stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Novo Nordisk may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Novo Nordisk and may potentially protect profits, hedge Novo Nordisk with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 104.0142 | Short Percent 0.0014 | Short Ratio 0.5 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.9 M | 50 Day MA 126.2842 |
Novo Nordisk AS Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Novo Nordisk's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Novo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Novo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Novo Nordisk AS. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Novo Nordisk's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Novo Nordisk.
Novo Nordisk Implied Volatility | 38.92 |
Novo Nordisk's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Novo Nordisk AS stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Novo Nordisk's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Novo Nordisk stock will not fluctuate a lot when Novo Nordisk's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Novo Nordisk. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Novo Nordisk to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Novo because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Novo Nordisk after-hype prediction price | USD 125.24 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Novo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Novo Nordisk AS will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.43% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Novo Nordisk trading at USD 125.26, that is roughly USD 3.05 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Novo Nordisk's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Novo Nordisk AS options at the current volatility level of 38.92%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Novo |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novo Nordisk's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Novo Nordisk After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Novo Nordisk at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Novo Nordisk or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Novo Nordisk, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Novo Nordisk Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Novo Nordisk's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Novo Nordisk's historical news coverage. Novo Nordisk's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 123.24 and 127.24, respectively. We have considered Novo Nordisk's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Novo Nordisk is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Novo Nordisk AS is based on 3 months time horizon.
Novo Nordisk Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Novo Nordisk is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Novo Nordisk backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Novo Nordisk, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 2.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
125.26 | 125.24 | 0.02 |
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Novo Nordisk Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of April Novo Nordisk AS is traded for 125.26. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Novo is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 125.24. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Novo Nordisk is about 2580.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 125.24. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.4. Novo Nordisk AS last dividend was issued on the 22nd of March 2024. The entity had 2:1 split on the 20th of September 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Novo Nordisk Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Novo Nordisk Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Novo Nordisk's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Novo Nordisk's future price movements. Getting to know how Novo Nordisk's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Novo Nordisk may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SSIC | Silver Spike Investment | (0.32) | 9 per month | 1.32 | 0.20 | 4.64 | (2.50) | 11.33 | |
| ALKS | Alkermes Plc | 0.36 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.79 | (4.24) | 21.89 | |
| EGRX | Eagle Pharmaceuticals | (0.40) | 10 per month | 4.81 | 0.01 | 8.00 | (7.92) | 23.10 | |
| EVO | Evotec SE ADR | 0.05 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.10 | (4.16) | 13.79 |
Novo Nordisk Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Novo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Novo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Novo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Novo Nordisk Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Novo Nordisk stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Novo Nordisk AS, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Novo Nordisk based on analysis of Novo Nordisk hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Novo Nordisk's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Novo Nordisk's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0127 | 0.0119 | 0.0101 | 0.0178 | Price To Sales Ratio | 12.0 | 12.04 | 13.48 | 14.16 |
Story Coverage note for Novo Nordisk
The number of cover stories for Novo Nordisk depends on current market conditions and Novo Nordisk's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Novo Nordisk is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Novo Nordisk's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Novo Nordisk Short Properties
Novo Nordisk's future price predictability will typically decrease when Novo Nordisk's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Novo Nordisk AS often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Novo Nordisk's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Novo Nordisk's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 30.2 B |
Check out Novo Nordisk Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Complementary Tools for Novo Stock analysis
When running Novo Nordisk's price analysis, check to measure Novo Nordisk's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novo Nordisk is operating at the current time. Most of Novo Nordisk's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novo Nordisk's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novo Nordisk's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novo Nordisk to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Novo Nordisk's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Novo Nordisk. If investors know Novo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Novo Nordisk listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.631 | Dividend Share 9.4 | Earnings Share 2.66 | Revenue Per Share 51.812 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.37 |
The market value of Novo Nordisk AS is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Novo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Novo Nordisk's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Novo Nordisk's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Novo Nordisk's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Novo Nordisk's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Novo Nordisk's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Novo Nordisk is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novo Nordisk's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.